As Fears Grow of Wider Middle East Conflict, Modi's India Prefers Silence; Indus Treaty Will 'Never Be Restored' Says Shah

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A newsletter from The Wire | Founded by Tanweer Alam, Sidharth Bhatia, Pratik Kanjilal, Seema Chishti, Sushant Singh, MK Venu, and Siddharth Varadarajan | Contributing writer: Kalrav Joshi, with additional inputs by Anirudh SK

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Over to Siddharth Varadarajan for today’s Cable

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Snapshot of the day

June 23, 2025

Siddharth Varadarajan

With Iran firing missiles at an American military base in Qatar on Monday night in retaliation for the US bombing of its nuclear sites the previous day, the conflict in the Middle East has entered a new phase. Much will depend on whether the Iranian strikes are meant to be symbolic – apparently the Qataris were told in advance and closed their airspace to minimise the risk to civilian aircraft, and early indications are that no one was hurt at the Al Udeid US base – so that there is an off ramp for itself and the US. If, on the other hand, the US or Iranian side intends to further escalate, then there is every likelihood of not just Qatar but other Gulf states getting dragged in.

Assuming the immediate hostilities draw down, all eyes will be on what Tehran decides to do in terms of its future relationship with the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. Iran will almost certainly suspend all cooperation with the IAEA, an alarming prospect for the US given that Iran not only possesses 400 kilos of 60% enriched uranium but also the knowhow to enrich it further; most importantly, Trump’s recklessness has handed Tehran’s rulers the moral, political and strategic incentive to actually take the decision to build a bomb – something they have refrained from doing so far.

If most of the region and the world has reacted to the US attack on Iran by condemning, cautioning, or calling for de-escalation, it is precisely because world leaders worry about what the strategic consequences will be. Surprisingly, India, a regional power with direct stakes in the fallout – from imperilled energy supplies to the safety of its diaspora – remains silent. The only official word came from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and even that was limited to a diplomatic nicety after receiving a call from President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran. Modi’s phone call with Pezeshkian, hours after the strikes, expressed “deep concern” and called for “immediate de-escalation” through dialogue and diplomacy, but stopped short of what