China to Send Top Official to Trump Inauguration, No Invite for Modi; BJP Looks for a Winning Formula in Delhi Elections; Unsecured Loans in Banks Rise, so Does Delinquency
A newsletter from The Wire | Founded by Sidharth Bhatia, Pratik Kanjilal, Tanweer Alam, Seema Chishti, Sushant Singh, MK Venu, and Siddharth Varadarajan | Contributing writer: Kalrav Joshi, with additional inputs by Anirudh SK
Snapshot of the day
January 10, 2025
Sidharth Bhatia
Chinese President Xi Jinping will send a high-level envoy in his place to the United States President-elect Donald Trump’s January 20 inauguration, the Financial Times reports. Beijing has told Trump’s transition team that the official would attend instead of Xi, whom Trump had invited to attend, the report said, citing several people familiar with the situation. It said the envoy would also hold talks with Trump's team. Xi could send Han Zheng, a vice president who sometimes stands in for him in ceremonial roles, while another option was Foreign Minister Wang Yi, the FT reported, citing its sources. The paper cited one person familiar with the situation as saying that some Trump advisers wanted Cai Qi, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee seen as wielding much more power than Han or Wang in his capacity as Xi’s right-hand man. Despite his high-profile rapport with Trump, Prime Minister Narendra Modi hasn’t yet made the guest list—while even China, though declining Trump’s personal invitation, is sending a high-level envoy to represent its interests. Is this a sign of shifting U.S. priorities, where ideological alignment and transactional ties overshadow strategic partnerships? Or merely a diplomatic oversight?
Meanwhile, the surge in anti-Indian hate on X during the final weeks of 2024, fuelled by far-right supporters of President-elect Donald Trump opposing the H1B visa programme, has been described as “a form of organised, systematic hatred, fanned by powerful actors” and a sign of the dominance of white supremacist ideology on the platform, according to a new study. The Washington-based think tank, Center for the Study of Organised Hate, released a report on Thursday analysing a surge of anti-Indian posts on X. The study reviewed 128 posts with the highest viewership, shared between December 22 and January 3. According to the report, these posts amassed a total of 138.54 million views by January 3, with 36 posts exceeding one million views each. The posts originated from 85 accounts, 64 of which – accounting for three-fourths – were Premium accounts displaying blue verification badges. The authors of the report observed that “given the fact that controversial, sensational, prejudiced, and hateful views receive more engagement, X’s business model has effectively incentivised hate speech, presenting it as an opportunity for monetization as well as for building fame and influence”. The report also noted that verbal attacks extended beyond Hindus of Indian or American origin, targeting all those perceived as being of Indian descent, including members of the Sikh community.
The Gujarat high court yesterday granted bail to The Hindu journalist Mahesh Langa in the Ahmedabad police’s GST evasion case against him, the Indian Express reports. However, Langa will remain in judicial custody as he is wanted in the Rajkot police’s GST evasion case against him, the paper reports, adding that his lawyer said he was willing to pay back the input tax credit his firm DA Enterprises had ‘wrongfully availed’. The Hindu quotes high court Justice MR Mengdey as saying: “Thus, the investigation of the offence alleged against the present applicant is virtually over by now. Having regard to the same, the present application deserves consideration.”
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s anticipated visit to Delhi later this month – where he is to be chief guest at the Republic Day parade – will likely help bilateral defence cooperation, especially negotiations on a sale of BrahMos missiles by India to Jakarta, reports Anirban Bhaumik. But word that Subianto plans to travel to Islamabad soon after his Delhi visit has caused some consternation in New Delhi, he adds. India has actively urged foreign leaders to avoid travelling to Islamabad on the same trip as their Delhi visits or at least to avoid travelling there directly from Delhi. Bhaumik writes that Pakistan has already formed a committee to explore enhancing bilateral cooperation with Indonesia.
Dhaka’s revoking of Sheikh Hasina’s passport earlier this week did not have anything to do with New Delhi reportedly extending her visa, a spokesperson of Bangladesh’s interim foreign ministry said yesterday. “Her status in India has no relevance to this request. It is not a matter of our consideration,” PTI quotes the spokesperson as saying.
Indian fact-checking firms working with Meta are waiting and watching how the social media giant’s decision to replace third-party fact-checking with a ‘community notes’ system will affect them – partnerships with Meta are a key source of income for some fact-checking firms, Aroon Deep writes.
The Goa government on Thursday directed heads of all state departments to “actively tune into” Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Mann ki Baat programme every month. “Departments are encouraged to draw inspiration from the positive suggestions and best practices shared during the programme, for implementation to enhance governance and service delivery in the state of Goa,” stated a circular issued by the general administration department. Sharing a copy of the circular on social media, Chief Minister Pramod Sawant said: “It is encouraged to draw inspiration from the success stories and best practices shared during the program, which have brought positive change across the nation.” He said that doing so would contribute to “achieving the vision of a Swayampurna [self-sufficient], Viksit [developed] Goa”.
It’s been a month since the Mahayuti stormed back to power in Maharashtra, but there is no indication from its leaders on when the upgraded version of the popular Ladki Bahin scheme will kick into effect. Alok Deshpande recalls that even before the scheme’s payout was hiked from Rs 1,500 a month to Rs 2,100, there were concerns about its impact on Maharashtra’s finances. A finance department official says a decision on when the increased payout will be implemented “will be [made] in the next fiscal as the state can hardly afford it”.
With the Trinamool Congress and the Samajwadi Party supporting the Aam Aadmi Party and not the Congress ahead of the Delhi elections and the Thackeray Shiv Sena leaning toward the AAP, questions are being raised about the future of the INDIA bloc, Sobhana K Nair writes. Jammu and Kashmir National Conference vice president Omar Abdullah has said that if the alliance was intended only to fight the Lok Sabha elections, it ought to be “wound up”.
The Supreme Court on Thursday dismissed review petitions against its October 2023 judgement refusing to legalise same-sex marriages. A bench of Justices BR Gavai, Surya Kant, BV Nagarathna, PS Narasimha and Dipankar Datta said it had carefully gone through the judgements delivered in the matter. “We do not find any error apparent on the face of the record,” the court said. “We further find that the view expressed in both the judgments is in accordance with law and as such, no interference is warranted.”
A two-judge bench of the Supreme Court said it was “worrisome” that the Allahabad high court did not take up a matter for hearing despite the apex court’s directions to process it expeditiously. Justice Surya Kant of the top court said, as per the Indian Express, that “unfortunately, filing has collapsed, listing has collapsed…nobody knows which matter will be listed [at the high court]”.
The “sheer volume of data collected” that tends to be collected from Kumbh Mela pilgrims by service providers – or those pretending to be service providers – creates fertile ground for scammers, Pratishtha Bagai and Devina Sengupta cite a risk management professional as saying. They note that pilgrims have already been scammed ahead of the Mela by fake service providers.
Meanwhile, the surge in unsecured loans has pushed Indian banks into a debt quagmire, with delinquency rates soaring and recovery agents becoming the frontline response. By December 2024, outsourced recovery agents in the BFSI sector ballooned by nearly 50% to 8,800, reflecting an alarming rise in unpaid credit card bills and personal loans. “Unsecured loans have gone up, and the resultant delinquency rates have also increased, due to which demand for collection profiles in the retail lending space, specifically unsecured loans like credit cards and personal loans, has increased in the past six months,” admitted Krishnendu Chatterjee of TeamLease Services. The RBI’s recent warning about unchecked leverage in unsecured lending underscores the looming crisis. Yet, banks, instead of introspection, are deploying sales staff for recovery to address a mess of their own making.
Noble chief executives and corporate honchos, who work round the clock for the good of their companies, want their employees to do the same. First Narayan Murthy, founder of Infosys, suggested that staff should work 72 hours in a week, now S N Subramanyan, chairman of Larsen and Toubro has suggested that employees should work for 90 hours, no less. He attempted to crack a joke to justify his idea: “how long can you stare at your wife?” Naturally, outrage followed. Apart from the sexist implications – what about those with husbands? – a few others said if they got even half of his salary, they would consider it. Last year he drew a package of Rs 51 crores.
A bizarre find during a security check has landed a Canadian traveler in legal trouble. A 32-year-old Canadian man was arrested at a Delhi, India airport early this week after authorities discovered a crocodile skull in his luggage during a routine security check. The skull, weighing 1.71lb, was carefully wrapped in a cream-colored cloth, according to Delhi customs officials.
Persistent, murky water and narrow tunnels stand in way of Assam rescue op
Rescue personnel trying to retrieve those trapped inside a flooded rat-hole coal mine in Assam are hindered by the water’s being too murky, its level increasing despite pumping and the mine’s tunnels being too narrow for rescuers to fit in along with their gear, Rahul Karmakar finds. The reason why the mine’s water levels are not decreasing is probably because it is connected with a large reservoir in a power generation project nearby, he writes, adding that officials are pinning their hopes on a heavy-pressure pump belonging to Coal India Limited being flown in. The man whose body was recovered from the mine has been identified – he was from Nepal. As of this evening, PTI reports that the miners’ leader or sardar has been arrested.
Unlawful conversion cases: whose grievance is it anyway?
Omar Rashid reports on the story of a Dalit man and two others who attended a prayer meeting in early 2023 held to celebrate a child’s birthday, but ended up facing charges of unlawful conversion and criminal intimidation based on a complaint by a Bajrang Dal member. They were ultimately acquitted of unlawful conversion as the complainant was not the aggrieved person in the case or a relative of the aggrieved; the intimidation charges were also disposed of because of contradictions in the complainant’s statements. Such cases, Rashid notes, result from the exploitation by Hindutva elements of complex religious realities wherein people from the marginalised castes have faith in Jesus but do not formally convert for fear of losing reservation.
Last 2 years crossed 1.5°C global warming limit
Last year was the warmest on record, the first to breach a symbolic threshold and brought with it deadly impacts like flooding and drought, scientists have said. Two new datasets found 2024 was the first calendar year when average global temperatures exceeded 1.5C above pre-industrial levels - before humans started burning fossil fuels at scale.
The Long Cable
BJP desperately looks for a winning formula in Delhi
Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta
Can the Bharatiya Janata Party upset the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party cart in Delhi? This is a question hovering over the minds of a number of observers in the run-up to the Delhi assembly elections, scheduled on February 5, 2025.
Prime minister Narendra Modi has already thrown his hat in the ring by labelling the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as “aapda”, a disaster, and its 10-year tenure “aapda kaal”, a period of disaster. His party has used alleged overspending in renovation works of the chief minister’s residence as its primary campaign tool to portray the incumbent AAP government as corrupt.
AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal has used the last six months to consolidate his ground among the urban poor through mohalla meetings, highlighted his welfare schemes, and kept the BJP on its toes by holding it accountable for deteriorating law and order situation in the national capital. The Delhi police functions under the union home ministry headed by Amit Shah.
The Congress meanwhile is trying hard to recover from its collapse after Sheila Dikshit’s loss in 2013, and is putting all its energy to match AAP’s welfare promises while projecting itself as the only secular opposition to the BJP.
Yet, what sets AAP apart from the two parties is Kejriwal, who remains popular and has led his party from the front. The BJP has struggled to find a leader in their own right, who can match the charisma of Khurana, or even Sushma Swaraj. Its plot to parachute Kiran Bedi as the chief ministerial candidate in 2015 backfired, while Harsh Vardhan was no match for Kejriwal and his team in 2020. Similarly, there is no one in the Congress who can fill Sheila Dikshit’s big shoes. Ajay Maken, or Sandeep Dikshit, are at best loyal Congressmen but are viewed with a factional lens even within the party.
Ever since the Delhi’s legislative assembly was formed in 1993, the BJP has struggled to come to power in the national capital. Barring its first tenure in which party stalwart Madan Lal Khurana led the Delhi government, the saffron party has never managed to come on top of other parties. The Congress under the leadership of Sheila Dikshit won three successive elections from 1998 until AAP first rose to power, with a short-lived minority government first in 2013 and then wiping out all its contenders with over 60 seats in the 70-member assembly in the next two polls.
The lack of stewardship in Delhi has once again pushed Modi to lead the BJP, even as his party has deployed multiple strategies to offset its weaknesses. It understands that Delhi’s electorate has swung towards AAP in assembly polls despite favouring Modi in the Lok Sabha elections. Moreover, while the BJP has had an effective political narrative based on corruption and dynasticism against the Congress, it hasn’t found its feet against a baggage-free AAP. In fact, Kejriwal has outwitted the BJP each time it has tried to corner the AAP. The BJP had no answer to Kejriwal’s recent resignation from the position of chief minister, even as it continues to scamper against AAP’s campaign pitch that its government is run by padhe-likhe log (educated people).
In such political circumstances, Modi will highlight his welfare work and corruption allegations that central agencies are probing against AAP leaders, while BJP will likely focus all attention to polarise the electorate along faith and caste lines.
The saffron party has tactically fielded former MP Parvesh Verma against Kejriwal in the New Delhi seat. Verma has shot to fame as one of the anti-Muslim icons in the Sangh parivar pantheon since the anti-CAA protests, and is known for his rabidly communal remarks. Similarly, it has placed former MP Ramesh Bidhuri against chief minister Atishi Singh in the Kalkaji seat. Like Verma, Bidhuri is also known for his communal remarks, the most dastardly being his 2023 confrontation with Danish Ali in Lok Sabha where he called the latter a “Bharwa” (pimp), “Katwa” (a pejorative word for circumcised), “Mullah Atankwadi” & “Mullah Ugrawadi”.
Around the 2020 elections, the BJP used the anti-CAA protests to run a vilifying campaign against Muslims, labelling the community as “traitors” and “anti-nationals” and carried out a number of marches to polarise the electorate along religious lines. Although AAP cleverly stayed away from responding to the campaign, Delhi saw its worst-ever communal riots soon after the elections.
In the run-up to the 2025 polls, the BJP has thrown in a new layer to its polarising tactics. Having understood that a significant section of urban poor, mostly people from Bihar and eastern UP known as Purvanchalis, still support the AAP, it has attempted to reach out to Punjabis, Jats and Gujjars of Delhi. Purvanchalis form 40% of Delhi’s electorate, while Punjabis make up 20% and Jats and Gujjars together form another 12% of the voters. The union home minister Amit Shah’s recent visit to the Rakabganj Gurudwara, the seat of Sikh politics in Delhi, was part of such an outreach. Similarly, fielding Verma, a Jat, and Bidhuri, a Gujjar, as prominent faces in the assembly polls is also a part of such thinking.
The saffron party is thus relying on Brand Modi, caste and faith-based polarisation, and anti-incumbency sentiment to upstage the AAP in absence of a leader who can steer the party. But, more significantly, it will desperately hope for the Congress to turn the usually bi-polar elections into a triangular contest.
The X factor in the upcoming Delhi polls will be Congress’s performance. Despite a lack of leadership, the BJP has retained its nearly 33% vote share since 2013. Its loyal voters have kept the party in good stead. However, the Congress’s stark collapse over the last decade has elevated the AAP into a nearly invincible position.
From 24.55% votes in 2013, the Congress’s vote share saw a free fall to 9.65% in 2015 and an abysmal 4.26% in 2020. Nearly all of its losses translated to gains for the AAP. Riding on its energetic canvassing questioning status-quoist politics, the AAP earned 29.49% votes in 2013, finishing second to the BJP in its very first elections, and went on to fatten itself subsequently. It cornered over half of the total Delhi’s votes in 2015 (54.34% with 67 seats) and 2020 (53.57% with 62 seats). The BJP, on the other hand, increased its vote share from 32.19% in 2015 to 38.51% 2020 but still finished a distant second to the AAP.
Precisely for such factors, the BJP has gone all out against the AAP government but has been strategically silent on the Congress. Barely has the BJP found itself in such a quandary where it hopes for the revival of its biggest political rival. If the Congress improves its vote share even by a few notches, the BJP will have a chance to beat the AAP. If the grand old party keeps dwelling in the shadows, power in Delhi will continue to dodge the BJP like before.
Reportedly
The BJP’s organisational reshuffle in Uttar Pradesh has run into a roadblock, with Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath wielding outsized influence over the state unit. Despite the central leadership's push for an overhaul to curb factionalism and infighting, the CM’s tight grip on the party machinery has sparked concerns. Critics argue that the state organisation operates more as an extension of Adityanath’s 5, Kalidas Marg residence than as an independent body. The urgency for change follows the BJP’s embarrassing performance in the last Lok Sabha polls and recent governance clashes between the CM and a deputy. Yet, the central leadership’s efforts to assert authority appear futile, as Adityanath’s dominance derails attempts to restore balance. As the hunt for a new state unit chief continues, it is clear that loyalty to the CM now trumps caste or regional considerations, underscoring the growing centralisation of power under Adityanath.
Deep dive
The latest NSSO data for 2022-23 and 2023-24 has reignited the Great Indian Poverty Debate, with P.C. Mohanan and Amitabh Kundu questioning the sharp 17.2% point decline in poverty since 2011-12. They argue the figures are not strictly comparable, as methodological differences may underestimate poverty. While the decline appears impressive, the disparities highlight deeper issues, urging a reexamination of poverty metrics to ensure accuracy in assessing India’s socio-economic progress.
Prime number: 20%Indian tech companies secured nearly 20% of all H-1B visas issued by the United States in 2024, according to data from the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). Out of 1.3 lakh H-1B visas granted to various employers during the April-September period, Indian companies were issued 24,766 visas. Infosys led the Indian pack with 8,140 visas, followed by Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) with 5,274, and HCL America with 2,953.
(Credit: Mint)
Opeds you don’t want to miss
“Journalists in Kashmir have long navigated a hostile environment, facing threats, surveillance, and legal repercussions,” writes Peerzada Ashiq.
The Kumbh Mela, far from ancient lore, is a colonial-era invention barely 150 years old, cobbled together by Brahmins, Mughal-era yogis and British propaganda eager to exoticize Hinduism. Anirudh Kanisetti gives the historical background of this so-called ancient practice as owing its origins to the munificence of power, first Mughal and then British.
And Ananya Vajpeyi explains why she does not want to go to the Mela this year.
Nikhil Lakshman writes about the inimitable Pritish Nandy. “I stormed into Nandy’s chamber and complained about his brother, Ashis Nandy’s dense and incomprehensible prose. After I ended my acerbic monologue, he turned to the lookalike gentleman on the sofa and asked, “By the way, have you met my brother Ashis?””
Neelanjan Sircar on the delivery claims versus identity politics in Delhi.
With a team in transition and stalwarts fading, Indian Test cricket faces pressing challenges to sustain its legacy in a rapidly evolving landscape. Ayaz Memon writes on the fall of India’s Test cricket supremacy.
Listen up
Is India open to the idea of dual citizenship? Amitabh Mattoo and Vivek Katju discuss the question in a conversation moderated by Kallol Bhattacherjee. Listen here.
Watch out
In his first video since retirement, Ravichandran Ashwin takes a heartfelt look back at his incredible cricketing journey. He delves into memorable moments from the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, weighs in on the Rishabh Pant debate, and shares his thoughts on the ever-evolving Cricket Twitter landscape.
Over and out
Payal Kapadia accepted the New York Film Critics Circle’s Best International Film award for her All We Imagine as Light. Watch her acceptance speech here, where she speaks about what her first trip to America was like and what it felt like to discover that Jodie Foster had watched her film not just once but twice.
That’s it for today. We’ll be back with you on Monday, on a device near you. If The India Cable was forwarded to you by a friend (perhaps a common friend!) book your own copy by SUBSCRIBING HERE.