Decoding the Four Day Conflict Between India and Pakistan; Trump's 'Trade for Ceasefire' Claim Now Part of Court Records; BJP Turns Sindoor into Poll Prop
A newsletter from The Wire | Founded by Tanweer Alam, Sidharth Bhatia, Pratik Kanjilal, Seema Chishti, Sushant Singh, MK Venu, and Siddharth Varadarajan | Contributing writer: Kalrav Joshi, with additional inputs by Anirudh SK
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Over to Siddharth Varadarajan for today’s Cable
Snapshot of the day
May 28, 2025
Siddharth Varadarajan
In an attempt to pierce through the fog of claims and counter-claims, Christopher Clary has written a comprehensive account of the four-day conflict between India and Pakistan. His paper also analyses the political and strategic consequences of the fighting and his conclusions are worth highlighting:
“After the sharp escalation of hostilities on May 9-10, the twin combination of military pressure and international persuasion—perhaps combined with Pakistan’s sense that it had struck back and proven its point—was enough for Pakistan to opt to halt the crisis. Pakistani interest is evident in the persistent DGMO calls. Yet, if India truly felt that it had a decisive military upper hand, New Delhi could have opted to press forward. Perhaps it even deliberated doing so. Yet India, too, apparently calculated the political advantages of further strikes were not worth the continued persistence of a costly and dangerous crisis. Both sides accepted the US-facilitated ceasefire.
“A ceasefire is not peace, however. The next crisis will come.”
Read Clary’s important paper here.
The US administration’s top trade official has declared in a formal submission to a federal court that President Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade policy helped as an incentive to “avert a full-scale war” between India and Pakistan earlier this month and warned that limiting executive power could jeopardise regional security. While Trump has so far spoken about his use of trade as leverage on social media or in public speeches, this is the first time the claim has been made by someone ‘on oath’ as it were.
Here’s why the latest claim is significant: While Pakistan had acknowledged Washington’s role in brokering the ceasefire, India maintains that trade was never mentioned in any of the official phone calls between Indian and US interlocutors. Indeed, Indian officials had let it be known that Trump had lied in claiming he had used trade as a sweetener to get India and Pakistan to agree to a ceasefire
The statement by US Commerce Secretary Howard W. Lutnick defending the use of tariffs was part of legal submissions from four Trump administration cabinet officials opposing a lawsuit filed by small companies challenging the global 10% tariffs imposed on nearly all imports at the US Court of International Trade, along with additional tariffs targeting specific countries.
Lutnick argued that such measures send “signals to foreign governments that certain conduct – whether economic predation, trade manipulation, or narcotics trafficking – will incur serious consequences” and warned that a ruling in favour of the petitioners “would have ripple effects across every domain in which economic instruments are used for strategic effect.”
To illustrate, Lutnick cited the recent India-Pakistan flare-up, claiming that Trump’s offer of trade access was instrumental in halting the conflict:
“For example, India and Pakistan – two nuclear powers engaged in combat operations just 13 days ago – reached a tenuous ceasefire on May 10, 2025. This ceasefire was only achieved after President Trump interceded and offered both nations trading access with the United States to avert a full-scale war. An adverse ruling that constrains presidential power in this case could lead India and Pakistan to question the validity of President Trump’s offer, threatening the security of an entire region and the lives of millions.”
It will be interesting to see what India says on the record. Trump’s role in staying Modi’s hand – BJP leaders encouraged the belief that India was on the verge of defeating Pakistan once and for all – robs Operation Sindoor of some of its lustre. On the other hand, denying the latest US claim would be tantamount to accusing the Trump administration of perjury. And that requires a leader with a 56-inch chest.
At home and abroad, the Modi government and the BJP are desperately milking Op Sindoor for political gain, and the PM is leading from the front. At a rally in Bhuj, Gujarat, he said that if the youth of Pakistan were not willing to live peacefully and eat roti, ‘Modi has bullets for them’ – playing on the double meaning that the Hindi word ‘khao’ has.
As if that remark were not tasteless enough, Modi took a racist dig at China and all East Asians and even Indians from the north-east when he exhorted people to join Operation Sindoor by boycotting foreign products, mentioning as an example imported idols of Ganesh which have ‘small eyes… that barely open’.
As part of its political strategy, the BJP plans to send sindoor to every home in India as part of the 11th anniversary celebrations of the Modi government. This programme will be launched on June 9 even as the party is unapologetic about the insulting remarks one of its MPs made about the women whose husbands were killed in the Pahalgam terror attack. It has also been announced that at a women’s empowerment conference in Bhopal on May 31 where Modi will be speaking, “620 women in "Sindoori" sarees will be in charge of managing things on and off the stage including water, food and parking.”
Islamabad has strongly censured New Delhi over the “reckless” and “hate-driven” remarks made by against Pakistanis, describing them as the product of “the theatrical flourish of a campaign rally rather than the sobriety expected of the leader of a nuclear-armed state”. “The hate-driven invocation of violence in his remarks is deeply disturbing, not only for its content but for the dangerous precedent it sets in a region already burdened by volatility,” the Foreign Office in Islamabad said in a statement issued on social media on Tuesday. It added, “This kind of inflammatory rhetoric goes against the core principles of the United Nations Charter.”
The French armed forces have made their first official comment about claims that India lost a Rafale fighter jet loss during its recent conflict with Pakistan. Responding to a query from Chinese media outlet Phoenix TV, a French military spokesperson said,
“Obviously, we are going to draw as much feedback as possible from this high-intensity combat use, which, according to some reports, obviously involved several hundred aircraft. So we are obviously following these events as closely as we can. But today, the main thing we can see is that the Rafale has been in service for 20 years, 20 years of combat use, and if it were true that there was a loss, it would be the first combat loss of this warplane.”
Meanwhile, the BCCI has invited all three service chiefs of the Indian armed forces to attend the IPL final on June 3 in Ahmedabad, where the event’s closing ceremony will also feature a tribute to their “heroic efforts” during the recent ‘Operation Sindoor’.
While sabre-rattling dominates headlines, the real cost of conflict will be paid by Indian citizens – via their electricity bills, reports Mint. Renewable energy projects near the Pakistan border in Gujarat and Rajasthan are facing skyrocketing insurance premiums due to war risk, driving up tariffs by 3–5 paise per unit.
Speaking of borders, the Election Commission is dragging its feet in holding elections for vacant seats – one Rajya Sabha, two assembly – and the National Conference and PDP want to know why.
The Supreme Court today restricted the scope of the special investigation team’s investigation into professor Ali Khan Mahmudabad’s social media posts on ‘Operation Sindoor’, saying that it should be limited to the two first information reports alone. A bench of Justices Surya Kant and Dipankar Datta ordered this after Khan’s counsel, senior advocate Kapil Sibal expressed concern that the SIT formed by the apex court while granting interim bail to Khan might look to expand its remit. Sibal also brought up how authorities were seeking access to Khan’s digital devices. Justice Kant asked why devices were needed. “Both FIRs are matter of record. What is the need for devices? Don’t try to expand the scope. SIT is free to form opinion. Don’t go left and right,” the judge told the Haryana AG.
The Bombay High Court slammed the Maharashtra government and an engineering college for arresting a 19-year-old Pune student over a social media post related to Indo-Pak hostilities, calling the state’s action “radical” and “unwarranted.” The court said the student had been wrongfully criminalised for a mistake she had acknowledged and apologised for after receiving death threats. The Reformistan post had criticised Prime Minister Modi’s “Islamophobic fanaticism” for the bombing of “women and children” and “ensuring that South Asia remains forever at its own throat, exactly as ‘divide and rule’ intended.”
The court also reminded the authorities of the reformative role educational institutions are expected to play. “The job of an educational institution is to not just impart academic education but also to help students reform,” the court said. “The girl is at an age where mistakes are bound to happen.”
The news agency ANI, courting controversy for leveraging copyright strikes against YouTube channels as a means of selling expensive subscription packages, today filed a defamation case against a Youtuber, Mohak Mangal. In a video that went viral, Mangal had said he was asked to pay around Rs 30-40 lakh in order to have ANI withdraw a copyright strike that led to the deletion of his channel. Mangal said he had made ‘fair use’ of short ANI clips but the news agency says it is being defamed for trying to run a business. If the matter goes to trial, the case may help clarify what amounts to fair use. Youtube’s own lack of due process in responding to copyright claims may also come under scrutiny.
India’s new surveillance rules, requiring CCTV makers to submit hardware, software, and source code for testing, have rattled global firms. Citing espionage risks, especially from Chinese brands like Hikvision and Xiaomi, the move has sparked warnings of supply disruptions and intensified concerns over growing protectionism under the Modi government.
A group of 10 MLAs – seven from the BJP, two from the NPP and one independent – met Manipur Governor Ajay Bhalla at Raj Bhavan on Wednesday, claiming the support of 40 MLAs and willingness to form the government in the state. According to The Indian Express, the group of 10 MLAs claimed the support of 44 legislators. In contrast, The Hindu reports a slightly different version – that more than 40 MLAs themselves converged at the Imphal Raj Bhawan to meet the governor. Meanwhile, protesters under the banner of the Coordinating Committee on Manipur Integrity (COCOMI) in the Imphal Valley are beginning to lock Union government offices, including the state’s Chief Electoral Officer’s quarters, and the office of the Geological Survey of India. Earlier on Monday, Bhalla was forced to take a chopper ride from the airport to reach the Raj Bhawan in light of protestors camping along the 7-km stretch. The protestors had formed a human chain between Imphal’s Tulihal Airport’s departure gate and the Keishampat Junction near the Raj Bhavan. People carried placards with slogans like “Manipur’s identity is non-negotiable” as they waited for the governor’s convoy to pass.
A Delhi court noted that the police had shown a “lackadaisical approach” in investigating a case against BJP leader Kapil Mishra for allegedly making inflammatory statements ahead of the 2020 Assembly election. During a previous hearing of the case, the deputy commissioner of police (northwest) told the court that a request had been sent to X for data related to Mishra’s posts. The official had said that a response from X was awaited. However, additional Chief Judicial Magistrate Vaibhav Chaurasia said on Monday that there had been little progress in the investigation despite the prosecution giving assurances of a thorough and efficient inquiry.
In five murder cases of Muslim men related to the 2020 Northeast Delhi anti-Muslim pogrom, a Delhi court ruled that WhatsApp chats cannot be considered “substantive evidence,” stating that they can only serve as “a corroborative piece of evidence.” In all five cases, where the same 12 Hindutva men are involved, the prosecution heavily relied on WhatsApp chats as key evidence. Many investigative reports and the Delhi Police had alleged that a WhatsApp group named “Kattar Hindu Ekta” had been formed during the violence in the city to plan the killings of Muslims and the vandalism of their properties. “Such posts may be put in the group solely with the intention of becoming a hero in the estimation of other members of the group. It could be a boast, without truth. Therefore, the relied upon chats cannot be substantive evidence to show that the accused… had actually killed two Muslim persons. These chats at the most could be used as a corroborative piece of evidence,” said additional sessions judge Pulastya Pramachala of Karkardooma Court while acquitting the accused. Earlier, the court had said in another judgment on April 30 that in connection with a case pertaining to the murder of one Hashim Ali, there were no eyewitnesses to the murder, and subsequently acquitted 12 accused.
Meanwhile, Muslim students and activists who participated in the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) protests continue to languish in jail without bail or trial, as part of what many have called the Delhi Police’s witch-hunt under the draconian Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA).
The Supreme Court Collegium headed by Chief Justice of India (CJI) B.R. Gavai decided to recommend the names of Chief Justice of Karnataka High Court N.V. Anjaria, Chief Justice of Gauhati High Court Vijay Bishnoi and judge of Bombay High Court Justice A.S. Chandurkar, as judges of the Supreme Court of India. The appointment of Justice Chandurkar will be in supersession of Justice Nitin Madhukar Jamdar, who is currently functioning as Chief Justice of the Kerala High Court, and Justice Shriram Kalpathi Rajendran, currently serving as Chief Justice of Madras High Court. The collegium statement issued earlier in the day does not specify reasons for giving priorities for these three names over the senior judges and maintains silence on why senior High Court judges were superseded.
For years, energy economists have talked about “structural tailwinds” that would propel Indian oil demand, the same phenomena which had turned China into the world’s engine of petroleum demand growth for 25 years. In 2025, it is the stuff of dreams as demand in the world’s most populous country is not growing fast enough, says Javier Blas in this Bloomberg piece.
Amid objections from Bangladesh, India on Sunday flew around 160 undocumented Bangladeshi migrants from Ghaziabad to Agartala in an Indian Air Force plane to be sent back to their home country. The group, including women and children, had been detained by Delhi police last week during a drive to identify undocumented immigrants, reports The Hindu. An official said the move was in line with the government’s decision to avoid “lengthy” deportation processes and instead send the migrants directly to Bangladesh. The Foreign Ministry of Bangladesh had earlier sent a letter to India “raising concern over people being pushed into the country and urged New Delhi to adhere to established repatriation mechanisms”. Earlier this month, two Air India planes transported 300 undocumented migrants, including 200 women and children to Agartala in Tripura. Brigadier General Md. Nazim-ud-Daula, director of the Military Operations Directorate of the Bangladesh Army, said on Monday at a press conference in Dhaka that such “push-ins are unacceptable”.
The Campaign for Justice and Peace has more details about how the Assam police is unlawfully cracking down on residents and pushing many across the border into Bangladesh.
There are reports that the Trump administration has ordered US embassies across the world to halt student visa processing as Washington expands its crackdown on higher education. Officials said social media vetting would be ramped up as part of the visa application process for foreign students. It comes as Asian and European universities unveil plans to woo those who are no longer able, or willing, to study in the US following a widespread freeze on research funding, part of a broader bid to expunge the “woke” ideology the White House claims is pervasive in higher education. Earlier in the week, the US had issued a fresh warning for Indian and foreign students in the country on a student visa.
From deportations to conversions to waqf – through a series of laws passed by both Centre and state governments, the powers of District Magistrates are being increasingly expanded. In many cases, the collector is now the arbiter in matters of identity, property and religious rights. Sanya Dhingra reports.
Tamil megastar Kamal Haasan has sparked a fresh controversy just weeks before the release of his film Thug Life, claiming that Kannada “was born out of Tamil” during an event in Chennai. The remark drew sharp criticism from Karnataka’s BJP leaders and pro-Kannada groups, who have threatened to boycott the film. Pro-Kannada organisations, including Kannada Rakshana Vedike, condemned Haasan’s statement as disrespectful to Kannada language and identity. Praveen Shetty, leader of Kannada Rakshana Vedike, has said, “If you talk against Kannada and Kannadigas, we have to ban your movie.” Meanwhile, activists tore down posters of the movie in Bengaluru and threatened further action if Haasan continued with such statements.
Modi govt gags NGOs: New Rules ban foreign-funded groups from publishing news
In a fresh assault on free expression, the Modi government has amended the Foreign Contribution Regulation Rules to bar NGOs receiving foreign funds from publishing any news content, including a newsletter! The Home Ministry now requires such organisations to get a certificate from the Registrar of Newspapers confirming they are “not a newspaper” – a move clearly aimed at silencing dissenting voices. By choking independent thought through bureaucratic coercion, the Modi government continues its pattern of shrinking democratic space.
Former wrestling chief Brij Bhushan sparks outrage with ‘roadshow’ after Delhi court cancels charge of molesting a minor
A Delhi court’s decision to accept the cancellation report filed nearly two years ago in the POCSO case against former Wrestling Federation of India (WFI) chief and ex-BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh has sparked widespread criticism. Meanwhile, Singh still faces charges in the sexual harassment case filed by five women wrestlers.
Social media erupted in outrage over the court’s decision, with many alleging that Singh had threatened the victim and her family, a claim previously raised by wrestlers Vinesh Phogat and Sakshi Malik in their last press conference. “Who would dare to take on such a goon backed by both the central and state governments?” one person wrote, reflecting the widespread public anger. Calling it a “trendsetting case,” journalist Saba Naqvi said, “Congratulations to all men who get away with groping and harassment. This is a trendsetting case !”
The wrestlers themselves have expressed their anger. “The army is yours, the leader is yours too, You write lies as truth, the newspaper is also yours! If we were to complain about this, where would we go? The government is yours, the governor is also yours!!”, said Vinesh Phogat. And Bajrang Punia tweeted:
“After being acquitted in the POCSO Act, Brij Bhushan Singh is doing road shows and showing off his victory, while the cases of 6 women wrestlers are still going on in the court. When the women wrestlers were on strike, at the same time, the minor women wrestler backed out under pressure from Brij Bhushan even though she had once testified against him. Brij Bhushan is still pressurizing the remaining 6 female wrestlers to withdraw their cases… It seems that even today the law is a dwarf in front of goons.
Sharp rise in loan write-offs this fiscal
There has been a sharp rise in loans written off by both public and private sector banks, this fiscal, compared to the previous one. The Hindu Businessline reports that India’s “largest lender, State Bank of India’s (SBI) write-offs rose to Rs 26,542 crore in FY25 as against Rs 17,645 crore in FY24. ICICI Bank’s write-offs rose to Rs 9,271 crore in FY25 from Rs 6,091 crore in FY24, while Axis Bank’s overall write-offs rose to Rs 11,833 crore versus Rs 8,865 crore in FY24.” It notes that “similar trends were seen across multiple mid-sized private lenders, while public sector lenders fared better.”
Reportedly
“The one thing I’ve noticed about the various clips being shown of the Indian parliamentary delegations’ outreach on the latest India-Pak skirmish is that the audience being addressed is never shown,” notes former Major General BS Dhanoa, adding: “Is this deliberate or am I reading too much into it?”
The observation is a valid one, and Krishna Prasad has a list of 15 other questions that reporters need to put to the MEA.
Pen vs Sword
Deep dive
“As India’s constitutional democracy has come under severe strain under the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Chief Justice of India’s broad powers might have been used to constrain democratic decline.” However, Rehan Abeyratne and Surbhi Karwa argue that “successive CJIs have misused their discretion to accelerate rather than impede Modi’s illiberal agenda” showing how the “office of the CJI has substantially contributed to multiple crises within the Supreme Court that have left the institution damaged and vulnerable to capture by the government.”
Prime number: 8
Since May 10, US President Trump has made serious claims undermining India and crossing New Delhi’s diplomatic redlines eight times. Yet, the Modi government has not issued an official rebuttal. Amid strained ties, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri is rushing to Washington and is expected to discuss how the Trump administration is handling its relationship with India – a move that speaks volumes.Opeds you don’t want to miss
India’s net FDI inflows collapsing by a staggering 96.5% to a mere $353 million in FY25 – the lowest in two decades – is a damning indictment of the Modi government's economic stewardship. While foreign investors are pulling out in droves through disinvestment and repatriation, Indian corporations themselves are voting no confidence in the domestic economic climate by channeling capital abroad at record levels, writes Ashok Bhattacharya in an important piece. Yet, instead of reckoning with this exodus of faith and capital, the government resorts to spin, flooding the media with inflated gross FDI figures like the $81 billion headline number – deliberately omitting the uncomfortable truth that net inflows have all but vanished.
The most dangerous weapon in South Asia is not nuclear but the narrative, writes Syeda Sana Batool. “The next time war drums beat, ask not just who fired first, but who spoke last. And ask what story that speech was trying to tell.”
Ajaz Ashraf says that the India-Pakistan 2013-14 draft agreement on J&K drawn by India and Pakistan had seemed acceptable then to Modi. Will it now?
Propaganda based on half-truths is being encouraged and malicious public statements causing hurt are being overlooked, says ex-Election Commissioner Ashok Lavasa in an important piece.
We cannot blame just the Supreme Court for its observations on Professor Ali Khan Mahmudabad, says Sarayu Pani. She argues that what ails the judiciary today goes beyond the individual as institutions cannot be permanently kept secure from the prejudices of the society they operate in.
“Hindutva, unlike constitutional morality, therefore does not require a caste-based society to reform, alter its fundamental moral code, or reject the inherent brutality of the caste-system. It simply redefines or expands the permitted targets of this brutality to include Muslims. This means that in the absence of large-scale social reform challenging the core principles of caste-based segregation, dehumanisation and violence around which much of Hindu society remains organised, Hindutva will generally appeal to a broader section of society than constitutional values like equality or individual freedom.”
Kapil Sibal writes that the rule of law must override political theatrics. If the Supreme Court has the authority to strike down a presidential order under Article 356, it is absurd to suggest that the actions of the President or a Governor are somehow immune to judicial scrutiny. He argues that no constitutional office is above the law – no matter how desperate the government is to shield its overreach.
Angshuman Choudhury on how the Supreme Court of India has persistently refused to recognise the Rohingya as victims of violence and persecution in Myanmar.
Listen up
On The India Briefing podcast, former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian is in conversation with Mukulika Banerjee and Pragya Tiwari for “a wide-ranging conversation on the state of the Indian economy. From GDP and regional inequality to informality, missed manufacturing opportunities, and the risks of regulatory overreach.” Listen here.
Watch out
Nasser Hussain sat down with Indian cricket star KL Rahul for a wide-ranging conversation, touching on India’s upcoming Test tour of England, his role as a finisher in the white-ball formats, and how he handles online trolls.
Over and out
In the 1930s, Indian Shia pilgrims traveling to Iran encountered repeated harassment by Customs officials and local police, particularly during the early years of the Pahlavi regime when law enforcement was patchy and uneven. Ajay Kamalakaran, writing on their experiences, details how pilgrims were often extorted or delayed under vague pretexts. Many reached out to the British Raj for protection, hoping imperial channels could shield them on their religious journeys through an increasingly unpredictable Iran.
Yesterday was the 61st death anniversary of Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first Prime Minister and a central figure in the nation’s journey from colonial rule to independence. Read this superb piece by Rehan Fazal on BBC Hindi on Nehru’s 3,262 days in prison, reminding us of his often-overlooked role as a revolutionary freedom fighter. While he is widely recognised as a modern nation-builder, Nehru’s long imprisonment shaped the ideals that guided independent India.
The President of India today awarded the Padma Bhushan to Hindutva rabble rouser Sadhvi Rithambara. Here’s a taste of what she did to deserve this honour, bestowed on her by Naya Bharat.
That’s it for today. We’ll be back with you tomorrow, on a device near you. If The India Cable was forwarded to you by a friend (perhaps a common friend!) book your own copy by SUBSCRIBING HERE.