India Commits to Buying More Weapons and Energy From the US; Two More Flights With Deported Indians to Land This Week; Gautam Adani Quietly Builds Up Influence in the US
A newsletter from The Wire | Founded by Tanweer Alam, Sidharth Bhatia, Pratik Kanjilal, Seema Chishti, Sushant Singh, MK Venu, and Siddharth Varadarajan | Contributing writer: Kalrav Joshi, with additional inputs by Anirudh SK
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Over to Sidharth Bhatia for today’s Cable
Snapshot of the day
February 14, 2025
Sidharth Bhatia
Less than a month after a dramatic return to the White House, United States President Donald Trump met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, agreeing to finalise a bilateral trade deal addressing “concerns” before the fall of 2025. New Delhi, notably, committed to increased purchases of US weapons and energy – Trump mentioned weapons including F-35 stealth fighters worth “billions of dollars” – in hopes of staving off the White House’s planned roadmap for global reciprocal tariffs. However, despite these massive commitments, there remains no clarity on the terms of technology transfer (ToT), with the US steadfastly refusing to share critical source codes or deeper military know-how. The Indian side has downplayed the offer, saying it was too early to decide as the acquisition process had yet to begin.
Additionally, India has agreed to increase purchases of American oil, gas and LNG, accelerating its shift away from Russian energy supplies. This serves American interests far more than India’s, given the US push to expand its energy exports. Meanwhile, India’s trade surplus with the US remains a thorn in Washington’s side, with Trump repeatedly branding India as the “tariff king” and announcing a vague, yet ominous, roadmap for reciprocal tariffs that could severely impact all US trade partners, including Indian exports claiming that Indian tariffs on US imports ranged from 30 to 70 percent, while the US trade deficit with India stood at “almost $100 billion”. “We are going to, if it’s India or if it’s somebody else with low tariffs, we’re going to have the same… We’re going to have whatever India charges we’re charging them, whatever another country charges we’re charging them”, Trump said.
With Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff plan, according to Capital Economics, India (29%) faces the harshest impact, worse than even Brazil (28%). Economist Paul Ashworth warned that this policy, more damaging than a universal tariff, could push US inflation beyond 4% while slamming Indian exports. Yet, despite these looming economic dangers, the Modi government appears to remain preoccupied with pleasing Washington rather than defending India’s trade interests.
(Credit: The Financial Times)
Perhaps the most striking aspect of the Modi-Trump discussions was how little India gained in terms of strategic security guarantees. While Modi made Ipronouncements about a so-called “TRUST” partnership (Transforming Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technologies), Trump showed little interest in India’s regional security concerns. When asked about ongoing tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China, Trump – who had previously offered to mediate between India and China – seemed unaware that the Ladakh standoff had de-escalated. His casual remarks about “skirmishes on the border” seemingly exposed his lack of commitment to India’s security. Similarly, on Bangladesh, Trump bluntly stated that the US had no role in internal matters, contradicting Modi’s hopes for American alignment with India’s regional interests.
As Modi cozied up to Trump, the reality for many Indian migrants in the US was far grimmer. Last week, a US military aircraft deported 104 Indian nationals in shackles, a humiliating and inhumane spectacle that drew sharp criticism in Parliament. Instead of condemning the treatment of Indian citizens, Modi doubled down on his alignment with Trump’s hardline stance, declaring India was “fully prepared” to take back any Indian undocumented migrants.
It is worth noting that two more flights carrying deported Indians are set to land in India this week, reports The Hindustan Times, further underscoring the Modi government’s failure to protect its people on the global stage.
But …
(Credit: Sajith Kumar)
The two leaders later held a press conference, marking just the third time in 16 years that Modi has taken open questions – all of them on foreign soil. Modi seems to have been forced to do a press conference at the White House where a journalist asked him a question anyway. It was a double-whammy – not only did a reporter at White House ask him a question, but the question was on whether Modi asked Trump to “take action” on the case against Gautam Adani. In an flustered response, Modi said: “India is a democracy built on the principle of ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ – the world is one family. Every Indian is part of this family and two prominent leaders of two countries never discuss such individual issues.” Modi was not asked questions on whether the Indian government was going to investigate Adani’s alleged bribery of government officials, and did not address this of his own accord either. On two leaders not discussing individual issues, here is a reality check from none other than Modi himself.
The opposition in India accused Modi of “covering up” the businessman’s corruption abroad. In a statement on X, Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi said: “If you ask questions in the country, there is silence. If you ask abroad, it is a personal matter! Even in America, Modi Ji covered up Adani Ji’s corruption! When filling a friend’s pocket is “nation building” for Modiji, then taking bribes and looting the nation’s wealth becomes a “personal matter”.”
Meanwhile, Adani has been quietly building political influence, reports Bloomberg. His team has enlisted prominent law firms like Kirkland and Ellis and Quinn Emanuel to lobby for his legal cases and business interests. Adani’s camp was also coordinated with Indian officials ahead of Modi’s US visit, hoping to sway discussions. Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers are voicing concerns, framing the charges as damaging to both US-India relations and their economies.
Speaking of which, The New York Times recalls on the display of power, “Mr. Modi shared photos on Mr. Musk’s social media site, X, that underscored Mr. Musk’s power within the Trump administration: The billionaire sat in front of an American flag next to the prime minister and the Indian flag, the kind of pose usually struck by a head of state and that Mr. Trump himself has assumed in recent weeks. Mr. Musk was accompanied by Shivon Zilis, who is a longtime adviser and the mother to some of his children, as well as three of his children, who appeared to exchange gifts with Mr. Modi.”
Leo Mirani of The Economist timely reminds that Modi’s travel to the US is at a time when America is starting to look like India. He writes in The Essential India newsletter:
“I, however, am interested in a different aspect of this trip. Which is that Mr Modi is visiting a country that is becoming increasingly like his own. How so, you ask? Let us start with nomenclature. Among the first things Mr Trump did upon returning to power was to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America and a mountain in Alaska from Denali to McKinley. This week his defence secretary renamed several army bases, from uncontroversial things like “Fort Liberty” to things like “Fort Bragg”, which may or may not refer to a confederate general. India, of course, has been on a renaming spree in recent years, with many new names much longer than the old ones. That no doubt inspired the American lawmaker who on Tuesday suggested that Greenland should be unilaterally renamed as…“Red, White and Blueland”. America learns fast.
A second similarity can be found in politicians taking personal credit for things. Indian public services and welfare come branded either with the words “prime minister” or with an image of the prime minister himself. Mr Trump deployed this tactic in his first term when he sent out pandemic stimulus checks with his signature, associating himself with free money and reaping political dividends. The Democrats’ approach to claiming credit, on the other hand, is poor. Last year in Chicago I saw a big sign next to major construction work. It read: “Project Funded by President Joe Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law”, thus associating the then-president with disruption. (Mr Biden did not put his name to stimulus cheques, an omission he later described as “stupid”.) If India is any guide, Americans should expect a lot more Trump branding on their public services.”
Ranveer Allahbadia aka BeerBiceps approached the Supreme Court today for relief with respect to multiple FIRs registered against him for a vulgar hypothetical he proposed during a comedy show recently. The chief justice told Allahbadia’s lawyer Abhinav Chandrachud that cases are not allowed to be listed urgently on oral mentions and that the YouTuber’s case would appear before a bench in two to three days, The Hindu reports.
Of the 43 crossings along the India-Myanmar border that were finalised as part of revised guidelines under the Free Movement Regime, 22 are now functional, with ten located in Manipur, five in Mizoram and Nagaland each and two in Arunachal Pradesh, Vijaita Singh reports. She notes that although Union home minister Amit Shah had said in December that the FMR would be scrapped, it hasn’t yet and his ministry has issued no formal orders to that effect.
Central Reserve Police Force jawan Sanjay Kumar allegedly shot dead two of his colleagues at a camp in Manipur’s Imphal West and injured eight others. He reportedly shot himself dead later.
Lakhs of people turned up at an airfield in Jharkhand’s Gumla late last month to attend a healing service held not by a local priest or pastor but the Chandigarh-based Bajinder Singh, who is among those Christian leaders belonging to the charismatic or Pentecostal set of movements. Singh’s service – which the Catholic church advised against attending – featured people who claimed to be cured of ailments including HIV, exorcisms, the charging of mobile phones through ‘divine power’ and a donations drive, reports Nolina Minj. Catholics – and purportedly even Hindus and Muslims – were also present.
A book fair at Uttarakhand university had to be cancelled after pressure from members of the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad, the student wing of the BJP. The organisers of the fair, a group called Creative Uttarakhand had already changed one venue when they came here. The Dean initially gave permission but later withdrew it. Over 70,000 books were to be displayed at the fair, but the ABVP alleged ‘communist literature’ was among them and they would burn books if the fair went ahead. Now it has been completely cancelled.
The website of the UN special rapporteur on human rights defenders has publicly expressed concern surrounding the reportedly arbitrary detention from a peaceful assembly and beating of Adivasi activist Bijendra Korram by security forces in Chhattisgarh last year – he was later charged with rioting with a deadly weapon, unlawful assembly and attempted murder as well as under the UAPA. The special rapporteur noted that a communique was sent to the Union government in November but that it “regrettably” did not respond within the stipulated two-month time window.
Tata boss Natarajan Chandrasekaran has been conferred an honorary knighthood – named ‘The Most Excellent Order of the British Empire (Civil Division)’ or an ‘honorary DBE/KBE’ – for his services to Indo-British business ties. He, however, cannot use any honorific before his name.
Prime Minister Modi during his visit to Marseille lauded Savarkar’s attempted escape from British custody in 1909, saying his bravery “continues to inspire generations”. But what exactly happened when Savarkar tried to jump ship has been clouded by myth, Arun Shourie has pointed out in his new book. While the legendary account – which appears to have been pseudonymously perpetuated by Savarkar himself – claims the Hindutva icon swam for his life and was chased for over a mile, in truth he probably swam only a dozen feet or so and ran for about 200 yards, Shourie has said.
What’s the point of verifying nationality of undocumented migrants after conviction, SC asks
Responding to the Union and West Bengal governments’ submission that they need Bangladesh to verify the nationalities of convicted foreigners before they can be deported, Supreme Court Justice JB Pardiwala asked yesterday:
“Who else could they be? That’s the basis of your charge before the Foreigners Tribunal. You have charged him saying that you are a Bangladeshi national, you have entered the country illegally and you hold him guilty, you punish him, you sentence him, then why do you ask?”
The court was hearing a matter originally taken up suo motu by the Calcutta high court but transferred to the Supreme Court afterwards – nearly 12 years ago, as the apex court noted – regarding undocumented immigrants remaining in detention homes in India despite being convicted under the Foreigners Act of 1946, Ananthakrishnan G reports.
On satisfaction with love life, India fares poorer than several other countries: survey
India figures among the bottom few countries in a survey gauging respondents’ satisfaction with their love lives, with 63% of people replying in the affirmative as opposed to over 80% in countries such as Colombia, Thailand, Mexico and Indonesia, reports PTI. The news agency adds, citing surveyor Ipsos, that India is sort of an outlier in that those surveyed appeared to have less satisfaction with their partners than with their romantic or sex lives. Ipsos says that “familial responsibilities, work pressures, career and societal pressures” left fewer Indians with time for romance.
But as this cartoon by PenPencilDraw indicates, there may be more to it than just that:
(Credit: X/@penpencildraw.)
Reporter documents what Kumbh stampede survivors in Bihar have to say about their ordeal
Umesh Kumar Ray reports from Maner near Patna on what survivors of the Kumbh Mela stampede said they saw and suffered during the incident. One woman said she was punched in the chest and stolen from, another said that flashbacks from the stampede have deprived her of sleep, and many blamed the tragedy on the fact that there were no separate barricaded paths for people trying to descend the ghats and those returning from taking a dip. Almost all the women Ray spoke to said they received no help from the administration.
The Long Cable
How should India respond to the Trump tariff war?
Surendar Singh
As Trump returned to the White House, the landscape of the global trading system became more complex. Trump fired its first round of tariff bullets on its major trading partners including Canada, Mexico and China. The next set of target countries are the European Union, Vietnam, and India which may face the brunt of Trump tariff war. The evolving trade policy stance of United States provides enough signals to its trading partners to diversify their trade from the US market. Shifting trade supply chains is not easy in the world of global value chains, where inputs are sourced globally and traverse multiple borders before reaching the final market. This becomes more difficult due to the sheer size of the US economy and its presence in global supply chains.
On February 13, the White House issued a Memorandum for the Secretary of the Treasury and other relevant departments titled “Reciprocal Trade and Tariffs”. The Memorandum states that the United States intends to follow a customised approach for each foreign trading partner based on five different areas: tariffs imposed on United States products, unfair and discriminatory taxes, costs to United States’ business and consumers stemming from disguised trade barriers, manipulation of exchange rates, and any other unfair trade practices.
Under the Trump America First Trade Policy, the challenges for India are manifold in a highly complex and uncertain global trading environment. It is important to see how India’s trade policymakers respond to the Trump Tariff War in the dilemma of opening markets and protecting its domestic political imperatives. Amid these challenges, it is imperative for India to adopt a calibrated approach to secure a deal with Trump and mitigate the potential risk of a full-blown tariff war.
First, the United States has expressed concerns regarding “unfair trade practices” amounting to a trade deficit of US$ 45.6 billion in favour of India. This clearly demonstrates that tariff cuts are the top priority of the United States in enhancing its market access. India has already taken a few steps in this direction, but it still needs to do more to calm Trump. India needs to put more effort into simplifying its complex and multi-tiered tariff structure which keeps changing every year. The rationalisation of the import tariff structure will certainly signal that India is undertaking serious reforms in its trade policy framework. Moreover, it will also help the country address issues related to the “inverted duty structure”.
Second, India can identify specific tariff lines in which the United States can replace China in the Indian market, though this will not be so easy, given their varying export profiles. But there exists some scope for capital goods and other product categories. Such product categories need to be identified, and possible options should be explored to increase imports from the United States. This will not only help India to reduce its trade deficit with China but will also strengthen India-United States ties in containing China’s trade dominance. Furthermore, India can increase its imports of defence, oil, and gas from the United States. This holds promise as a way to address the United States’ concerns regarding increasing trade deficits.
Third, India’s trade policymakers should aim to secure better market access for labour-intensive exports. Trump had withdrawn the benefits of the Generalised System of Preference (GSP) in 2019, which has been hurting our exports to the US market. India should ask for it to be restored if a comprehensive reciprocal tariff arrangement is being worked out. This will help India regain its lost market access in some product categories such as articles made of leather, rubber products, toys, garments and pharmaceuticals. Enhanced market access will not only boost exports, but will also contribute employment generation in the manufacturing sector.
Fourth, some policy experts contend that India should explore possible options for a “sectoral trade agreement”. It is important to understand that a sectoral trade agreement with the United States will not be of interest to India, given that it maintains high tariff rates. Any tariff cut under a sectoral FTA based on the United States’ policy of reciprocity of trade and tariffs will benefit the US at the cost of Indian industry. Reciprocity tariff reduction in a sectoral agreement involve offering equal tariff cuts across tariff lines under negotiation. This could be more challenging for India. A selective approach to tariff reductions under bilateral trade talks seem to be the best option for India.
Finally, the Trump-led global tariff war is changing the dynamics of global trade. It is expected that this will give impetus to the regionalised nature of international trade and inter-regional trade agreements. Mega regional trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) will further focus on reorganisation of supply chain networks within regional blocs. The EU has recently finalised a trade agreement with Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay) to promote trade and investment. It is clear that the Trump America First Trade Policy will compel its trading partners to focus on regional and bilateral trade. Therefore, it is crucial for India to conclude its bilateral trade agreements with the EU, UK, Australia, Canada, and Latin American economies to protect its economic and trade interests.
(Surendar Singh is an associate professor at the Jindal School of Liberal Arts and Humanities, OP Jindal University, Sonipat. Views are personal.)
Reportedly
There are a few signs of discontent in the ruling Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra, with Shiv Sena MLAs saying they weren’t invited to a District Planning and Development Committee meeting for Raigad convened by Ajit Pawar, Eknath Shinde not attending meetings held by chief minister Devendra Fadnavis and anger among some Shiv Sainiks over their nominee not being selected as chief of the Maharashtra road transport corporation. Fadnavis appears to run the government as a solo operator, without taking into account the other coalition members, at least the Shiv Sena and is reportedly close to Pawar and this is making Shinde and his members feel unwanted.
Deep dive
US Institute of Peace scholars Sameer Lalwani and Vikram J Singh believe that in order to “meaningfully create dilemmas for Chinese planning”, New Delhi and Washington “must level up” defence cooperation in the years to come. Read their explanation of why here.
Prime number: 2027It is only by February 2027 that the entire Delhi-Mumbai expressway may be open for traffic, given that the completion of about six sections remains pending, finds Dipak Dash. He points out that three of these sections are in Gujarat, where the amount of progress is almost zilch, 7% and 35% respectively.
Opeds you don’t want to miss
Jagdeep Chokhar does a deep analysis of the Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi assembly election and suggests that the RSS has simply dumped the party. He says AAP’s ideological moorings were congruent with the larger framework of the RSS and once it felt that the Congress “was fully decimated”, it had no use for AAP.
Anurag Minus Verma on how India’s moral rules keep getting rewritten on the controversy surrounding Samay Raina and BeerBiceps. But is it a poor joke or vulgar understanding? Mansi Anil Kumar asks, “If vulgarity is truly the issue, why have countless instances of inappropriate humour been brushed aside in the past? And if this truly isn’t about vulgarity, what makes Allahbadia’s case unique?”
Meanwhile, Vir Sanghvi asks, in the light of FIRs against the unfunny talk show host-what should the government do to Ranveer Allahbadia, and provides the answer-Nothing.
Why was there no deal over the Brahmos missile when Indonesian president Probowo Subianto was visiting India in January, asks Major Gen Ashok K Mehta? When Subianto was visiting China last year soon after becoming president, the two countries had signed deals worth $10.6 billion. At the end of his India visit, there was no bilateral outcome. He contends that bureaucratic hurdles may be one reason for this.
Listen up
On The Hindu’s In Focus podcast, Pradip Phanjoubam talks “about the implications of the resignation of the chief minister of Manipur, and whether President’s rule will bring back normalcy in the state.”
Watch out
Dhruv Rathee uncovers the motives, the preparation and eventually the execution of one of history’s most controversial and impactful murders, Nathuram Godse.
Over and out
For nearly two decades, Sangham Radio, a female-run station in Telangana, has been a lifeline for rural communities. Led by ‘General’ Narsamma, the team covers everything from missing goats to health tips. More than broadcasters, they are problem-solvers, empowering villagers with news, advice and a platform to be heard. The Guardian has a profile.
That’s it for today. We’ll be back with you on Monday, on a device near you. If The India Cable was forwarded to you by a friend (perhaps a common friend!) book your own copy by SUBSCRIBING HERE.