Is Gautam Adani to Narendra Modi Like Elon Musk is to Trump?; Russia’s Rosneft Enters Into a Huge Energy Deal With Reliance; India Votes in UN in Favour of Resolution for Immediate Ceasefire in Gaza.

Dec 13, 2024

Snapshot of the day

December 13, 2024

Sidharth Bhatia

The high levels of PM_2.5 in India are associated with 1.5 million deaths every year, a study recently published in the Lancet Planetary Health journal said. Anonna Dutt reports that it also found that while no one in the country lives in areas where the yearly average pollution levels are below those recommended by the WHO (a PM_2.5 concentration of 5µg/m³), 81.9% of Indians live in areas that do not even adhere to levels recommended by the Indian government, which are far higher than those of the WHO at 40 µg/m³.

A delegation of six opposition MPs in the Rajya Sabha submitted a motion this morning to the House’s secretary general seeking the impeachment of Allahabad high court Justice Shekhar Kumar Yadav for the remarks he made at a Vishva Hindu Parishad function over the weekend, reports The Hindu, adding that the motion has 55 signatures. This is five over the minimum number of signatures needed for it to be admitted. The legislators said Justice Yadav committed three sins: delivering hate speech, targeting minorities and violating the 1997 Restatement of Values of Judicial Life by publicly expressing his views on political issues.

Rosneft has agreed to supply almost 500,000 barrels of crude oil to Reliance in what is the biggest energy deal between Russia and India, Nidhi Verma reports citing sources. She is also informed that Rosneft will supply 80,000-100,000 tons of various Russian crude grades and 100,000 tons of fuel oil to Reliance every month. Under the deal, which sources said was approved during a Rosneft board meeting last month, supplies will begin next month, are scheduled to take place over the next ten years and can be extended for another ten years if agreed to. One source also said that the new deal accounts for half of Rosneft’s oil exports by sea from Russian ports.

CISF top brass have decided to stop providing subsidised liquor to serving and retired personnel, who are not fans of the decision, finds Imran Ahmed Siddiqui. To make matters worse, he notes, those on high have made yoga mandatory for the force. Ranbir Singh, president of the Confederation of Ex-Paramilitary Welfare Associations, says that the CISF citing “sensitive postings” for its decision is “childish, given that liquor is available to the BSF and the ITBP which guard the borders”.

Retail inflation went down from 6.21% in October to 5.48% in November; food inflation likewise eased from October’s 10.87% to 9.04% last month. These declines combined with a decrease in GDP growth in the July-September quarter adds to expectations of a rate cut when the RBI’s monetary policy committee – with Sanjay Malhotra as the RBI governor – is set to meet in February, writes Nikunj Ohri.

A court for legislators in Uttar Pradesh ordered that an FIR be registered against Bilsi BJP MLA Harish Shakya, as well as 15 others, on gang-rape and fraud charges, PTI reports. The MLA is accused of gang-raping the wife of the petitioner in the case over a land sale dispute.

Trinamool Congress MP Sagarika Ghose yesterday submitted a privilege motion against parliamentary affairs minister Kiren Rijiju; she said she did so because the minister abused his position with “diatribes and unparliamentary language” against the opposition. PTI recalls the day prior, Rijiju had said opposition MPs were “not worthy” of being in the Rajya Sabha. Sources said that 60 MPs lent their signatures to her motion.

Earlier this month an Indonesian government MP requested the country’s foreign minister to mediate a dispute between some Jakarta residents and the Indian embassy in the city over an 18-storey building proposed to be built in the embassy’s compound. While the Indian embassy has said it was planning to build the high-rise building because of limited space, the lawyer for the other party had said there was no environmental impact assessment conducted for the renovation project; when the developer later turned up with one, the lawyer said it did not consult local residents as mandated by law, reports Wahyudi Soeriaatmadja.

Industry executives say that the government’s allocation of Rs 1,100 crore – 0.03% of the GDP – to telecom-related research and development is at odds with its desire for India to hold a tenth of the world’s 6G patents by 2030, Kalyan Parbat reports. Apart from R&D, another challenge for India will be to deal with the high investment required to upgrade 4G and 5G infrastructure to support 6G services, Parbat cites a Grant Thornton analysis as saying.

India was among 158 countries on Wednesday that voted in favour of a UN general assembly resolution demanding an “immediate, unconditional and permanent” ceasefire in Gaza. Nine countries, including the US and Israel, voted against, while 13 others abstained. While India’s stance near the time the Gaza war began leaned toward Israel, it has since adopted a more nuanced approach. For an overview of India’s voting position on the Israel-Palestine issue, scroll to the end of this article.

Of the photo of Pakistan’s surrender in the 1971 war in the chief of army staff’s office being reportedly replaced with that of a painting depicting mythological symbols at Pangong Tso, retired lieutenant general HS Panag writes that

“The photo/painting symbolising India’s first major military victory in a 1000 years and also first as a united nation, in 1971, has been removed by a hierarchy which believes that mythology, religion and distant fragmented feudal past will inspire future victories.”

That it was (cutouts of) these two personalities who flanked the stage at a government event to celebrate ‘women leaders’ is “symptomatic” and “even emblematic”, notes economist Jayati Ghosh.

Alex Travelli and Abdi Latif Dahir in this article sum up the international fallout of the US government’s indictment last month against Adani.

All We Imagine As Light has been nominated for best international feature at the Critics Choice Awards. Meanwhile, Varun Grover points out how this – and other aspects of the film’s success – haven’t stopped director Payal Kapadia from appreciating certain simpler pleasures.

Popularity of CAA in West Bengal dented by its emphasis on Bangladeshi documents

Five years after the Citizenship (Amendment) Act came into being, Rokibuz Zaman reports that there are target beneficiaries in West Bengal for whom it has not proven very useful. Even a BJP leader admitted it is unlikely that potential beneficiaries will have the kind of documents the CAA rules ask for. One teacher whose parents migrated to India from Bangladesh asked if people were to admit being from Bangladesh, “what is the guarantee that we will not be targeted?” Zaman also finds that talk about Hindus being persecuted in Bangladesh today has led to calls to allow people who came to India even after end-2014 to apply for citizenship.

H-1B approvals for Indian IT firms halve since 2015, more denials likely

The H-1B visa approvals for Indian IT firms have dropped by more than half since 2015, a new study has found. According to an analysis of US data by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) – a US-based non-partisan think-tank – India’s top seven IT firms had only 7,299 H-1B petitions for new employment approved in fiscal year 2024 as opposed to 14,792 approvals in FY15, reports The Economic Times. Nearly half of the approved H-1B petitions in FY24 (49.1%) were in professional, scientific and technical services, followed by educational services (11.9%), manufacturing (9.3%), health care and social assistance (6.5%). According to the latest findings, denial rates for H-1B could further increase under the Trump administration if the same restrictive policies as his previous term are imposed again.

India’s brick kiln workers especially vulnerable to climate change-induced heat

Brick kiln workers in India are especially vulnerable to the rising temperatures brought about by climate change. New research by the Rights Lab at Nottingham University indicates that even if emissions turn out to be low and there is strong global cooperation – the best-case scenario – workers at over 40% of kilns in India will be working in higher temperatures by 2050, reports Anuja. She notes that because these workers are often paid piecemeal, they may be apprehensive about taking breaks out of fear of losing pay and are thus extra vulnerable to heat-related disease. One kiln worker tells her: “If you work at a kiln, there is no way to escape fire. But there should be ways to escape the summer heat.”

The Long Cable

Gautam Adani as Narendra Modi’s Elon Musk?

M K Venu

Can Adani be described as Narendra Modi's Elon Musk? Or conversely can Elon Musk be called Donald Trump's Adani? There are striking parallels in the way both Adani and Musk enjoy a rare clout within the system they operate in. Trump's projection of Musk and their mutual reinforcement is quite open and transparent. When is the last time a US President-designate publicly extolled the virtues of a single businessman? Trump said in his victory speech that Musk "was a genius and that he can do things which no one else can..." Trump was openly expressing his gratitude for the support he got from the richest US billionaire whose personal wealth tops $400 billion today.

Modi doesn't say anything explicitly but his government's actions speak volumes about the special place the Adani Group has in the government's scheme of things, especially its economic diplomacy globally.

Donald Trump has given every indication so far that Musk will be his world ambassador when it comes to doing critical trade/investment deals with major economic partners globally. For partner countries this could have a double edged effect.

Modi has already made Adani a lynchpin of his economic diplomacy outreach — albeit with mixed success — around the world, whether it is in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Africa, Myanmar, Israel , Europe, America or more recently China where Adani has opened a supply chain company for solar equipment manufacture. Adani had also announced an ambitious $10 billion investment plan in the US which is likely to be put off for now because of the US district court and Securities Commission indictments against his company on charges of corruption.

However, Adani is undeterred and has said he would fight the case and emerge stronger. One is already witnessing what can be described as unqualified support for Adani from the ruling party which has built a campaign within and outside Parliament suggesting that a foreign conspiracy against the group is in fact a larger attempt to hurt India's sovereignty!

BJP has thus effectively declared that Adani is a proxy for India and has raised questions about whether the US deep state along with George Soros is funding global media organisations to hurt India's growth story fuelled largely by the Adani group Like the umpteen narratives the BJP creates to protect its supreme leader, this one too is delusional on many levels. The ruling party has never let facts come in the way of their incredulous story telling. In a sense, the BJP is as transparent as Trump in the way narratives are spun.

What is to be noted is Trump is openly and explicitly projecting Musk as someone who will play a key role in his oft repeated "America First" policy. Trump does not at all hide that Musk will play a role in building and consolidating the US's presence in critical technologies globally.

Meanwhile, Musk has already started publicly attacking the US Securities and Exchange Commission which has been investigating the manner in which Twitter was bought over by Musk in October 2022.

Musk recently mocked the US SEC as “just another weaponized institution doing political dirty work” in his post on X. Musk's supporters say the SEC “cannot be trusted.”

This could be music to Adani' s ears as he himself would like to project the SEC in the same light. The US Securities and Exchange Commission has indicted Adani for allegedly making a false declaration that the company will not resort to corrupt means while investing money raised from the US market. Musk's attack on the SEC therefore will be welcomed by the Adanis.

Musk escalating his attacks could even mean a possible scrutiny of the US SEC after Trump formally takes charge of the administration. The billionaire owner of X had repeatedly clashed with the institution even during Trump's first term.

Most recently, the SEC has been investigating Musk’s $44 billion purchase of X, which was then called Twitter. It is an open secret that Musk paid a grossly overvalued sum to gain political influence and to help Trump. The value of the X has fallen 70% since the change of ownership but it has brought immense political dividends for Musk as is evident now after Trump's victory. It was a risky political bet which has come good for Trump.

Similarly, one can argue that the Adanis may also have made or are still making many such bets which are partly political and partly commercial. If you have a populist authoritarian leader backing these all the way and protecting you against legal, regulatory and legislative headwinds, it creates a favourable risk-reward ratio that would be the envy of any crony-led state capitalist enterprise.

Reportedly

Indian students in the US are a worried lot. US universities are said to be telling students and faculty of foreign origin that they should come back before the Trump takeover ceremony otherwise they will not be responsible if the students are unable to re-enter and asked to get an endorsement from local US embassies. Even Indian tech workers who don't have a green card and are working on temporary work visas have been told the same thing. Indian tech companies are a bit concerned too. Some young couples have hurriedly got married too. One investment analyst on CNBC said Trump’s formal return will have a negative sentiment on leading tech stocks listed in India.

Deep dive

As part of its ‘Read the Screenplay’ series, Deadline has put up the full screenplay for Payal Kapadia’s award-winning All We Imagine As Light. Read it here.

Prime number: 46% PMAY-U homes vacant

Although 9.69 lakh houses under the PM Awas Yojana (Urban) have been “completed”, almost 4.59 lakh houses – around 46% – remain vacant, the Union housing and urban affairs ministry told the standing committee on housing and urban affairs, reports Risha Chitlangia. She cites the ministry as attributing this to “incomplete infrastructure, non-allotment of houses and unwillingness of allottees”. The standing committee noted that the “unoccupancy of completed houses for whatsoever reason will defeat the very purpose of the Mission”.

Opeds you don’t want to miss

“India had historically embodied a foreign policy philosophy that recognised the merits of inclusive and representative democracy,” write Manucheher Shafee of Bangladesh and political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot. They argue that India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy faces a ‘moral reckoning’ in the context of Bangladesh, where India’s full-on support to Sheikh Hasina, despite her crackdown on opponents, was short-sighted.
Winning the World Chess Championship is impressive enough, but what is more inspiring is Dommaraju Gukesh’s journey in the year. He was hardly someone to be reckoned with in the game at the beginning of 2024. He was not even the highest ranked Indian, for one thing. Magnus Carlsen had dismissed his chances. But he has shown his mettle, writes Shankar Raghuraman.
The government’s Vishwakarma scheme is another way of institutionalising casteism, says Tara Krishnaswamy. The scheme offers collateral-free loans to artisans and craftspeople such as goldsmiths and potters, among others who are descendants of families who did the same work. This, she says, “effectively obstructs social mobility” of such people who thus confining them to their caste roles.
Corporate profits have been growing rapidly, but have salaries kept pace? No, says Ajit Ranade. Wages have not even kept pace with inflation, he writes. “Aggregate GDP growth, expected to revive to above 6.5% by next year, and continuing robust growth of company profits must somehow become more inclusive.”
Jawaharlal Nehru had tremendous regard for parliament and the judiciary and was a total democrat, writes Shashi Tharoor. He could have easily assumed unlimited power after Independence, there was no one to oppose him, but he did not. “We want no Caesers,” Nehru wrote in an anonymous article.

Listen up

Ahead of the third test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy between India and Australia in Brisbane starting tomorrow, Pete Lalor and Gideon Haigh discuss “the latest on the teams and the conditions”, and also “compare notes on Queensland and reminisce of Brisbane Tests past”. Listen here.

Watch out

Rajdeep Sardesai and Shoaib Daniyal speak about the former’s new book 2024: The Election That Surprised India, “the state of Indian journalism, why the 2024 result is not really a setback for Modi and whether Rajdeep is thinking of retiring”.

Over and out

Jagjit Singh from Gurgaon noticed one day that a stray dog had curled up inside a paint barrel he had discarded. When he fitted mattresses into four more barrels and left them out that night, he woke up to find he had given shelter to four more dogs. It’s been six years since then, and Singh – who has also diversified into sparrow shelters – distributes such barrels from his factory for free every winter to shelter stray animals.

That’s it for today. We’ll be back with you on Monday, on a device near you. If The India Cable was forwarded to you by a friend (perhaps a common friend!) book your own copy by SUBSCRIBING HERE.

The India Cable