RAW Forced to End Presence in North America; COP28 Agrees to Climate Disaster Fund; Despite Caste Survey Politics, is OBC Vote Eluding INDIA?
BNP boycotts Bangla polls, ‘rat miners’ acclaimed, India embarrassed in Unesco, ED officer took bribe to drop TN case, Kailasa costs Paraguay man his job, Kissinger gets awful obits, including for ’71
A newsletter from The Wire | Founded by MK Venu, Seema Chishti, Siddharth Varadarajan, Sushant Singh, Sidharth Bhatia and Tanweer Alam | Contributing writer: Kalrav Joshi, with additional inputs by Anirudh SK | Editor: Pratik Kanjilal
Snapshot of the day
December 1, 2023
Pratik Kanjilal
Never before have they received so much praise for doing their job, said the 12 ‘rat hole’ miners, mostly Dalit and Muslim practitioners from UP of a dangerous and banned practice, who broke through debris into a collapsed tunnel in Uttarakhand to rescue 41 construction workers trapped for over a fortnight. They used 19th century technology after modern machinery had failed. Asked what they wanted, their demands were dignified and modest: a home for an elderly relation, a road to that home, life insurance, fair wages, respect irrespective of caste and creed, an assurance that such disasters, owing to negligence, wouldn’t happen again.
Following charges of running assassination campaigns in the US and Canada, RAW has been forced to close down operations in North America for the first time since it was founded in 1968, says Praveen Swami in The Print. India was denied permission to appoint a successor to the station chief in Washington, who returned to India this year. The head of the RAW station in San Francisco and the second-in-command in London were expelled. They are IPS officers from the Tamil Nadu and Telangana cadres. In Canada, the Ottawa station chief was publicly expelled. Apart from the US and Canada, which have made their displeasure known to India at the highest level, “British intelligence had voiced unhappiness on several occasions over the increasing involvement of RAW in Sikh diasporic politics in the country under former chief Goel, a Punjab-cadre IPS officer who served in operations against Khalistan terrorists before joining RAW.” The organisation has fallen foul of host countries earlier, especially Germany, but has not attracted murder charges before.
The US may have raised the issue of an attempt on the life of Gurpatwant Singh Pannun with the Indian government four months ago. US officials said that it was discussed by the national security advisers of the two countries, the heads of intelligence agencies, foreign ministers and heads of government, reports Hindustan Times. The message was that such incidents could cause “permanent damage” to the bilateral relationship. US Secretary of state Antony Blinken has said that India’s institution of a probe into the matter is “good and appropriate”, reports Deccan Herald.
Why would India risk diplomatic crises at this time, when the US has been courting it as a foil to China? The New York Times surmises that it could have been sanctioned from the top, with an eye on forthcoming elections (the muscular “ghar mein ghuske maarenge” rhetoric has earlier helped the BJP electorally), or could have been the work of a misguided operative trying to please political bosses.
The Supreme Court has extended interim protection granted to four journalists from coercive action by the Gujarat Police, for writing about the Adani Group. They are Ravi Nair and Anand Mangnale, and Benjamin Nicholas Brooke Parkin and Chloe Nina Cornish of the Financial Times.
Parliamentary panels are showing their partisanship. Danish Ali, who was subjected to communal abuse on in the House by BJP Ramesh Bidhuri, has been forced to compain to Speaker Om Birla over the move to summon him to record his “oral evidence” on “complaints received from various MPs against Ramesh Bidhuri and Kunwar Danish Ali for alleged improper conduct”. To defend Bidhur’s unprecedented conduct, some BJP MPs fabricated complaints against Ali so as to claim he ‘provoked’ Bidhuri.
It’s been seven years since the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) conducted a performance audit of the MGNREGS at the Union level, The Wire reports. The last audit was in 2016, when the CAG examined its social audit units, and it has come under the spotlight for pending payments to states and decreasing funds.
Under pressure from the Indian government, the World Bank withdrew three papers, one of which had noted a sharp reduction in rural toilet usage, especially among Scheduled Castes and tribes. The perception was that the government had moved on, says The Print.
The Indian IT industry is reducing hiring, increasing the unemployment problem that’s become an embarrassing hallmark of the Modi government, which came to power on the promise of growth and jobs. Entry-level jobs for fresh graduates are now scarce, affecting lakhs of young people when elections are in the offing. Even big brands like Infosys and Wipro are cutting back on campus recruitment, which institutes guarantee to students when they take their courses.
Academic council members of the University of Delhi have condemned its decision to invite RSS secretary Bharat Bhushan as the special guest at the inauguration of the Centre for Hindu Studies.
A day before nominations end for Bangladesh’s January 7 parliamentary election, the country’s leading Opposition party has confirmed that it will not participate in the polls due to the “autocratic crackdown” by the Sheikh Hasina government. The BNP wants Hasina to step down and make way for a neutral caretaker government to conduct the election in a “free, fair and credible manner”. In reaction, the government has launched a crackdown on the BNP, with top functionaries and grassroots-level workers being jailed on a slew of cases, involving mainly violence and corruption. Many Opposition leaders have gone into hiding.
Yesterday, the government accorded initial approval to defence acquisition projects worth Rs 2.23 lakh crore that included procurement of 97 Tejas light combat aircraft and 156 Prachand combat helicopters. The Defence Acquisition Council (DAC), chaired by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, cleared the projects, which are strategically significant when India has an intractable border situation with China, and the US wants it to be a bulwark for its interests at sea.
As the Taliban tighten their grip on Afghanistan, they have applied Sharia law very strictly. Since October 2022, all but two citizens accused of crimes ranging from robbery to adultery, were publicly flogged, says the Financial Times. The two were executed.
2023 is set to be the warmest year ever, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has said, as climate negotiators and world leaders gather for COP28 in Dubai. Global average temperatures till October this year were about 1.4 Celsius higher than the pre-industrial average, considerably more than the last hottest year, 2016, which was about 1.29 Celsius warmer. In its provisional State of the Global Climate report, an annual publication released at COP meetings, the WMO said that the observed increasing concentrations of the three main greenhouse gases — carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Further, ocean heat content and global mean sea levels were at record highs, while the Antarctic sea ice extent was at its lowest ever.
MLAs of the Trinamool Congress and the BJP were sitting in protests at the West Bengal Assembly and trading barbs when Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee cleverly asked her party MLAs to sing the national anthem. The BJP leaders did not stand up. An FIR has been registered against them for disrespecting the national anthem.
An agriculture officer who signed a commitment for his country Paraguay to recognise Nithyananda’s fictional nation United States of Kailasa, and to push for its recognition in global fora, has been removed from his position.
Canada again asks India to cooperate in murder probe
About US federal prosecutors’ charges that an “identified Indian government employee” ordered the murder of a US citizen and may have overseen the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, Canada’s Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly said she would not comment on the US criminal case, but India must help Canada track down Nijjar’s killers. “We stand by our own credible allegations that there was a killing of a Canadian on Canadian soil, linking to Indian agents,” she said in Brussels, reports The Globe and Mail. “We call on India to engage in our own investigation.” Joly said that she had spoken to US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar multiple times on Nijjar’s killing. Canadian media had reported that Joly and Jaishankar had an unannounced meeting in Washington. “We call on their cooperation to make sure this investigation is able to proceed,” she said. The foreign minister also expressed displeasure at India’s decision to expel 41 Canadian diplomats from India.
Canadian PM Justin Trudeau said, “The news coming out of the US further underscores what we’ve been talking about from the very beginning: which is India needs to take this seriously. The Indian government needs to work with us to ensure that we’re getting to the bottom of this. This is not something that anyone can take lightly.”
What’s behind India’s loss in Unesco
Pakistan has bested India, which is trying to position itself as the leader of the Global South, in an election at the Unesco executive board for the post of vice chair last week. It is being seen as a major setback for Indian diplomats in the UN. Islamabad’s candidate got 38 votes while India’s received only 18. India’s representative at the Unesco Vishal Sharma, a political appointee (he was OSD to Narendra Modi when he was Gujarat CM), was asked about the reasons for India’s dismal performance, where it garnered less than 50% of votes. The elections were held during the 218th session of the Unesco executive board held in Paris last Friday. Leader of the Global South?
Meanwhile, investors who put their money in the Pakistan Stock Exchange’s just five months ago would have seen investments grow on average by a blistering 46%, compared with returns of a little over 3% growth in the Indian stock market, reports The Print. The IMF package has been a shot in the arm for the financially beleaguered neighbour.
COP28 agrees to climate disaster fund
A landmark deal to help the world’s poorest and most vulnerable countries pay for the irreversible impacts of climate disaster was closed on the first day of the COP28 UN summit, to a standing ovation from delegates. Host country UAE and Germany pledged $100m (£79m) each to the loss and damage startup fund, which will aim to keep up with the rising costs caused by extreme weather and slow-onset disasters such as sea level rise, ocean acidification and melting glaciers. The initial funding is close to US$429m. €225m ($245m) will come from the EU, including US$100m from Germany. There is also £60m ($75m) from the UK, $24.5m from the US and $10m from Japan. The funding will be a much-needed boost for the agreement, as the loss and damage resolution does not mention scale or the replenishment cycle, which climate justice advocates say raises questions about the fund’s long-term sustainability.
India squads for South Africa announced
Skipper Rohit Sharma and batter Virat Kohli will skip the white-ball leg of India’s upcoming tour of South Africa, the country’s cricket board BCC said on Thursday. Rohit and Kohli were part of the India team who lost to Australia in the final of the 50-overs home World Cup earlier this month. In Rohit’s absence, Suryakumar Yadav will lead the side in the three-match T20 series beginning in Durban on Dec. 10. Wicketkeeper-batsman KL Rahul will take charge for the three one-day internationals that follow before Rohit and Kohli return for the two-test series. India dropped middle-order batter Ajinkya Rahane while Cheteshwar Pujara could not force his way back in, with both seemingly at the end of their international careers.
The Long Cable
Despite caste survey politics, is OBC vote eluding INDIA?
MK Venu
Whatever the final results of the Assembly elections, going by some credible exit polls, a noteworthy aspect is the caste-wise voting pattern in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. This is particularly interesting in the context of the Opposition campaign to push for a caste census in various states and the Congress’ radical shift towards wooing backward castes in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Poll survey agency Axis My India, which has an excellent track record for accuracy, has done a detailed constituency-level survey for the India Today group, which shows that in MP, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh there is fairly sharp caste polarisation wherein the BJP has a big lead over Congress in garnering OBC votes. However, the Congress is ahead of the BJP in capturing Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe votes in these three states. Of course, the BJP also has a much higher share of upper caste votes, which is a continuing trend. This polarised pattern needs to be examined by the Opposition parties for political strategizing around the caste census. The key question is, to what extent will the politics around the caste census work in the cow belt states apart from Bihar in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls?
In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP has 56% of OBC votes and the Congress has merely 32%, as per the Axis/India Today survey. In contrast, the Congress(45%) leads the BJP (41%) in securing SC votes. The Congress also has a lead of 3 percentage points over BJP in the ST category in MP.
In Rajasthan, Congress with 57% SC votes massively leads the BJP with just 26%. Among STs in Rajasthan, Congress has 51% vote share and BJP merely 29%. However among OBCs in Rajasthan the equation reverses with the BJP having 55% and Congress 29%. That is a huge gap.
This distinctive and polarised pattern of voting among SC/ST versus the OBC is interesting in the context of the politics around the caste census. Chhattisgarh shows a similar voting pattern for Congress and BJP. The BJP seems to have done well among OBCs in Chattisgarh by fielding a large number of OBC candidates from the Sahu community. This is also a bit surprising, given the overall popularity of Congress’ much projected OBC Chief Minister Bhupesh Bhagel.
If Axis My India’s caste voting pattern is to be believed, then the Opposition alliance INDIA may have to think very hard about how to woo OBC voters in the Hindi belt outside of Bihar, the state which triggered the caste census politics. Bihar is the epicentre of the politics of OBC empowerment linked to the caste census, but Rahul Gandhi’s open articulation of a commensurate share of power for the OBCs, which began during his Karnataka election campaign, may face roadblocks where the Congress and BJP are in a direct fight in the Hindi belt. In the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress will have to get a higher share of OBCs in MP, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh to make a significant dent in BJPs vote and seat share. With the OBCs and upper castes overwhelmingly voting for BJP, as indicated in the Axis My India survey, the Congress will have to toil harder to work its new politics around the caste census in these states.
Interestingly, the Congress has been able to make a big dent among the OBCs in Karnataka and perhaps in Telangana, where it was traditionally propelled by the upper caste Reddy community. However, the challenge of penetrating the substantial OBC vote bank in the broader Hindi belt remains quite daunting for the Congress. This task becomes tougher with the BJP managing to radicalise significant sections of OBCs towards Hindutva ideology in the cow belt, especially in UP.
Traditionally, when the Congress system flourished under Indira Gandhi and later briefly under Rajiv Gandhi, it enjoyed a substantial chunk of the SC, ST, Muslim and upper caste vote, which seemed an unbeatable combination. But today, the Congress doesn’t have a big chunk of the upper caste vote to add to the combination of SC, ST and Muslims. This seems to be the case in MP, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh, where the Congress has a good chance of recovering from the collapse of its Lok Sabha tally in 2019. BJP had almost swept these states in 2019. Penetrating the OBC vote in these states is therefore crucial to the exercise of the Congress reviving its fortunes in MP, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh. This is especially so because Rahul Gandhi has taken a decisive call to go for the OBC vote rather than focus on getting back the upper caste vote, which the Congress had lost over the years.
Reportedly
Software industry icon NR Narayana Murthy recently said that “nothing should be given for free,” and suggested that people availing services and subsidies provided by the government should be made to contribute back for the betterment of society. He termed it “compassionate capitalism”, a better alternative to socialism and capitalism. It’s a bit rich, coming from a billionaire who studied at IIT and worked at IIM, which were completely funded at the time, and went on to build the Infosys empire with the advantage of subsidised land and tax breaks. Subsidies for billionaires and big brands are seen as necessary, but if the poor benefit, it’s revdi.
Prime Number: 20 lakh
In Tamil Nadu, an official of the Enforcement Directorate has been arrested for demanding and accepting a bribe of Rs 20 lakh for dropping proceedings in one of the many cases filed against politicians in the state, which have complicated Centre-state relations, reports Indian Express. Tamil Nadu Police intercepted his car on the highway in Dindigul shortly after he took the bribe.
Deep Dive
In Scroll, Kamayani Sharma recalls the career of Angela Trindade, the Goan painter from Mahim who helped to decolonise Christian art and was a contemporary of Amrita Sher-Gil, and who is now being brought back from the margins of the history of modern Indian art.
Opeds you don’t want to miss
“Long before India and Israel were even nation states, Zionism and Hindutva shared a vision of creating a land purified of its Others. And this thread ties these ideologies together in their vision for a ethno-nationalist states,” writes Marcy Newman on what explains the crackdown in India for speaking out on Gaza.
To engender complete public trust, elections need to be demonstrably and publicly verifiable, so that the endless controversy about EVMs can be laid to rest, says computer scientist Subhasis Banerjee.
The Economist visited Varanasi and the Gyanvapi mosque, to discover how the Hindu right is using the law and institutions to target and perhaps demolish mosques in India.
Nothing but good of the dead, the maxim goes. But Kissinger went the extra mile, so some of his obits are really bad, like ‘Good Riddance’ in Rolling Stone. Ishan Tharoor writes on the man with the blood of innocents on his hands, including in South Asia.
Not a ‘Vishwaguru’, not indispensable, writes Sanjaya Baru. “The Nijjar-Pannun episodes reveal India’s delusions of power.”
Reckless cowboys have replaced the ‘Kaoboys’ of yore says Bharat Bhushan, comparing the intelligence agency established by RN Kao in the 1960s to the targeted assassinations now being mounted abroad.
Listen up
On Grand Tamasha, the economist Anant Sudarshan joins Milan Vishnav to discuss India’s air pollution crisis.
Watch out
Qisse with Kopal catches up with the diversely talented Piyush Mishra There’s ice cream, too.
Over and out
Away from the glamour and glitz of her professional career, the BBC explores Dia Mirza’s challenges to entrenched norms, which have included eschewing any plastic at her son’s second birthday and having her wedding officiated by a woman priest.
Malcolm X famously visited a tense, young Fidel Castro at the Hotel Theresa, where he stayed ahead of the 1960 UN session after being shunned by other New York City hoteliers. But X wasn’t the first to visit Castro at the Theresa – that distinction apparently belongs to Jawarhlal Nehru.
That’s it for today. We’ll be back with you on Monday, on a device near you. If The India Cable was forwarded to you by a friend (perhaps a common friend!) book your own copy by SUBSCRIBING HERE.