World Leaders Losing Sleep Over Iran War But Not India; Pakistan Busies Itself With Risky Mediation; Indian Rupee Falls to 95/$, Tighter IT Rules to Protect Modi from Free Speech
For subscribers: Next Phase of US-Israel War on Iran—Attrition, Diplomacy or Regional Quagmire? MNREGA Discontinued? Counting Indians Finally, Turtles Back on Great Nicobar, Indians Are Sleep Deprived
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March 30, 2026
Siddharth Varadarajan
The Indian rupee crossed 95 to the dollar today and there seems no end in sight to its steady depreciation. Japanese bank Mitsubishi UFG explains why the rupee is particularly “vulnerable”. Spoiler: India’s currency will be buffeted not just by the higher oil prices the US-Israeli war on Iran has triggered but by the second-order impact of gas and fertiliser disruptions:
“The indirect effects across a range of sectors could also be meaningful for India beyond the first order impact, and ultimately points to a stagflationary environment of higher inflation and weaker growth with a weaker Indian Rupee a key outcome as well.”
Around the world, leaders are bracing their people for what lies ahead but not in India. “I am forced to know things about what could happen in the coming week, and the effects it will have on the economy and our daily lives, that no longer allow me to sleep,” Italian defence minister Guido Crosetto said ominously yesterday. And South Korea’s president, Lee Jae Myung, is also unable to sleep: "The world is in turmoil over the energy crisis...the situation is so serious that it has even kept me up at night. The immediate problem is grave enough, but the outlook ahead seems even more unstable — the situation is worse than expected."
From Prime Minister Modi, though, all we have heard so far are bromides. These are “challenging times” for India, he told his radio audience yesterday, urging them not to believe “rumours” of shortages.
Due to the severe disruption in LPG imports, the Union petroleum and natural gas ministry has relaxed its safety and licensing rules to allow for the ad hoc and quick distribution of kerosene to households in 21 states and Union territories that were previously declared ‘PDS kerosene-free’. The government continues to maintain that there is no shortage of cooking gas, two more ships of which Iran allowed to cross the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Small-scale restaurants and their less wealthy patrons in particular have been hit hard by the LPG crisis.
An eighth Indian national has been killed amid the West Asia war, in an Iranian attack on a power and water distillation plant in Kuwait. The exact circumstances of their death is not clear.
Remember the phone call Donald Trump made to Modi just before he retweeted the Pakistani prime minister’s offer to mediate between Iran and the US? Well, the New York Times has reported that the Elon Musk was also on that call – a claim that neither the US businessman looking to enter India or the White House has denied. The Indian foreign office has also not directly refuted the report although it does insist the chat was “bilateral”. So did Trump and Modi talk while Musk listened in at the former’s insistence? Did the conversation also cover Musk’s business interests in India, and if so, did Modi provide any concessions or assurances? Given the PM’s track record over the past year, anything is possible. Curiously, three days after a conversation that was supposedly on West Asia and the Hormuz Strait, Trump put out a message via the US embassy in Delhi:
“Our amazing relationship with India will be even stronger going forward. Prime Minister Modi and I are two people that get things done, something that cannot be said for most.” (emphasis added)
Given that there is nothing that India has done on the West Asia front since the March 24 telephone call, was this a reference to Indian action on some
