PIO Democrat Funders Forced Governor’s Veto of California Caste Bill; Rising Women’s Work Participation Signals Stressed Livelihoods, Not Progress
Pakistan keen to join BRICS, govt to help people file FIRs against social media deepfakes, Kashmir blacked out, food cos profit from unhealthy products, Sherlock-style murder in Odisha
A newsletter from The Wire | Founded by MK Venu, Seema Chishti, Siddharth Varadarajan, Sushant Singh, Sidharth Bhatia and Tanweer Alam | Contributing writer: Kalrav Joshi, with additional inputs by Anirudh SK | Editor: Pratik Kanjilal
Snapshot of the day
November 24, 2023
Pratik Kanjilal
Pakistan has confirmed that it has filed an application to join BRICS under Russia’s presidency in 2024, Islamabad’s ambassador to Moscow told TASS, adding that Islamabad would not support sanctions against Russia. Relations between the two have improved in recent years, with Pakistan buying discounted Russian crude oil after it was banned from European markets following the invasion of Ukraine. The first oil shipment, imported by the government, was landed in June.
The Afghan embassy in India has been permanently closed “owing to persistent challenges from the Indian government and the Taliban”. Diplomats unaffiliated with the Taliban have left for third countries.
Ajay Jain Bhutoria, former deputy co-chair of the Democratic National Committee, has revealed that after Democrats in California passed the first US state law banning caste discrimination, he and prominent donor Ramesh Kapur had “used very strong words” to convince Governor Gavin Newsom that he should veto the legislation in the interest of his political future. Indian American donors and voters are now important for the Democratic party, and Newsom’s veto on October 7 had highlighted the growing rift among Democrat Indian-Americans on the question of caste.
Following the appeal hearing of eight former-Indian Navy servicemen who are incarcerated and sentenced to death in Qatar, the next hearing in the case is scheduled to take place on Wednesday, November 30.
The outbreak of “unknown pneumonia” among children in China is not due to an unknown pathogen says the WHO, allaying concerns of a new virus-driven epidemic. The authorities in India are monitoring the situation.
As winter falls, Kashmir faces the longest power cuts in two decades, of 12-16 hours per day. Power generation is down to 50-100 MW, while demand is in the region of 2,200 MW. Earlier, state governments had bought power from the northern grid to keep outages down, but now, residents believe they are being subjected to “collective punishment” by the administration which is controlled directly by the Union home ministry in Delhi. This was not how things were meant to be following the scrapping of J&K’s autonomy in 2019, going by the official claims. The people of the erstwhile state were told they “will get facilities and development which was denied them before the abrogation of Article 370,” Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in 2021. “Without basic supplies of electricity for a beautiful state like Kashmir, potential-ridden development has always been at its minimum”.
India will crack down on AI-generated deepfakes and misinformation with a new regulation that could impose financial penalties on creators and social media platforms which enable its proliferation. The government will allow citizens recourse against AI-generated harmful content on the internet, Union IT and telecom minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said, reports Reuters. The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology will develop a platform to help users file FIRs against platforms.
Riot police used batons and tear gas to halt tens of thousands of supporters of Nepal’s former king, who attempted to march to the centre of Kathmandu to demand the restoration of the Hindu kingdom. “We love our king and country more than our lives. Bring back the monarchy. Abolish the republic,” the crowd chanted. The protesters had gathered at the edge of the capital. Authorities had banned protests in key areas of the city.
Five months after it was formed, the Union government’s three-member Commission of Inquiry into the ethnic violence in Manipur has asked the public to submit affidavits bearing a “statement, allegation or complaint” in the next 45 days. In September, it was announced that it would hold public meetings, but it has not done so. In September, it said that the public should submit five copies of their affidavits, attested by court officials, to its Delhi office. Now, facilitation centres in Manipur will be set up to get affidavits filed for free.
Prakash Raj, actor, film director, producer—and man with a conscience—has been summoned by the Enforcement Directorate for questioning in connection with a money laundering case linked to an alleged Rs 100 crore ponzi scheme run by Tiruchirapalli-based Pranav Jewellers, for whom he has been brand ambassador. The ED had raided Pranav Jewellers on November 20 under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act and claimed to have seized Rs 23.70 lakh in “unexplained” cash and some gold jewellery.
The 18th interim report of Justice (retired) BP Katakey, filed before the High Court of Meghalaya, said there is no reduction in the illegal transportation of illegally-mined coal in the state. The state government had claimed that coal is not illegally mined or transported.
All government schools in Himachal Pradesh are switching to English medium, reports The Tribune.
Another soldier has died in the encounter in Rajouri district. The Army has lost five men, and have shot two militants, including an LeT commander.
A mob stormed a hospital in Imphal after a civilian refugee from Myanmar, who had been shot in the fighting there, was admitted. The rumour was that the man, who died of his injuries, was a Kuki militant, reports Indian Express.
After buying Pakistan’s top e-commerce site Daraz in 2018, Alibaba has been using cricket and influencers to attract online shoppers, but struggles to retain business volumes, reports Rest of World. But Alibaba is still waiting for an e-commerce boom as more Pakistanis go online.
Two deaths in a fire in a premium senior care facility in Delhi, where basic equipment like fire hoses did not work, raise questions about the eldercare business, which can only boom as India ages.
More than 18 months after the Supreme Court collegium’s recommendation, the Union government notified the appointment of advocate Somasekhar Sundaresan to the Bombay High Court. His elevation was initially opposed by the Centre because of apparently biased social media posts. After the top court struck down a law that would have given the power of appointing and transferring judicial officers to the executive, the Union government adopted a “pick-and-choose” policy to thwart collegium recommendations. Earlier this week, the top court warned the government of “embarrassing outcomes”.
Blue whales have returned to a part of the Indian Ocean where they were wiped out by whaling in the 1960s. Researchers in the Seychelles have captured footage of the marine mammals in 2020 and 2021, and have recorded underwater audio showing that the whales spend months in the region, suggesting breeding activity. The findings, published in the Journal of Endangered Species Research, have been described as a “conservation win”.
Recalling Sherlock Holmes’ ‘Adventure of the Speckled Band’, a man in Odisha has been arrested for killing his sleeping wife and daughter by releasing a cobra in their room.
A new species of ‘music frog’ has been discovered in Arunachal Pradesh, based on morphological, molecular and acoustic evidence. In an article published in the journal Zootaxa, scientists assert that the recently identified frog within the Nidirana genus exhibits distinct morphological characteristics which set it apart. The scientists have gathered five Noa-Dihing music frogs for their study ― three males and two females.
In Indian Express, Adya Goyal writes on “India’s first Kardashian”, Orhan Awatramani alias Orry. No one knows what he does, but he’s impossible to ignore.
What Muizzu really wants
Opinion is divided on the Maldives, says the South China Morning Post, after it switched from former president Ibrahim Mohamed Soli’s ‘India first’ policy to an ‘India out’ drive. Some experts say that President Mohammed Muizzu had sought election on the promise to oust Indian forces, and he is just going through the motions of following through. Strategic writer Manoj Joshi points out that India is the nearest big country and can’t be ignored in favour of distant China. Others say that it’s an instance of a small country that’s been influenced by colonialism, then by the US, and just wants out of great gaming.
Indians still taking lion’s share of UK visas
According to official immigration figures announced in London on Thursday, Indian skilled workers, medical professionals and students maintained their dominance in the UK’s visa count during the last year. According to figures compiled by the UK Home Office from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for the fiscal year ending September 2023, Indian citizens topped not just the Skilled Worker visa route, but also the Health and Care visa route. Indian nationals remained the biggest group of students permitted to stay on the new post-study Graduate visa option, accounting for 43% of awards. “While ‘Skilled Worker’ visas have only seen a modest rise in the past year (+9%), ‘Skilled Worker – Health and Care’ visa grants have more than doubled (+135%) to 143,990. Indian (38,866), Nigerian (26,715), and Zimbabwean (21,130) nationals saw the largest increases on this visa compared with the previous year,” the UK Home Office analysis notes. “Indian nationals accounted for over one-quarter (27%) of all sponsored study grants to main applicants in the latest year.”
Following the Taliban takeover, most UK asylum-seekers are Afghans. Meanwhile, the BBC reports that amid an expulsion drive against Afghans, Pakistan is charging an exit fee of $830 to Afghans who want to leave.
More women win in Rajasthan, but few get to contest
Election data from the Trivedi Centre for Political Data shows that in Rajasthan, a larger proportion of women candidates have been winning in Assembly polls with larger margins than men, but they are getting fewer chances to contest, finds Behanbox. The proportion of women candidates has risen from 1.57% in 1962 to 7.53% in the latest election. The proportion of women MLAs has increased from 4.5% to 11% in 2018.
But in the upcoming elections, the BJP has allocated fewer tickets to women candidates ― only 10% this year compared to the 12% in the 2018 elections. The representation of women contestants from the INC has seen marginal change, maintaining a consistent level at 13.1% in 2018 and slightly increasing to 14.1% in 2023.
Sunburn accused of promoting drug culture
Sunburn Festival, a popular electronic dance music event, has once again run into trouble with right-wing groups in Goa, where the event is to be held, demanding its cancellation for promoting “drug culture.” A delegation of the Hindu Janajagruti Samiti submitted a memorandum to the Deputy Collector, North Goa, seeking a ban on the festival, scheduled to be held at Vagator beach on December 28-31. “Due to the festival, Goa’s civility is deteriorating. Such festivals are destroying the youth by promoting drug culture,” their memorandum says.
The Long Cable
Rising female work participation signals stressed livelihoods, not progress
Dhananjay Sinha
A lot has been written about the rise in female participation in India’s workforce (Periodic Labour Force Survey, or PLFS, 2022-23). The rise in overall female labour force participation rate (LFPR) – labour force as a percentage of population of all ages – to 27.8%, up 3 percentage points YoY, came largely from the rural areas (up 3.3% to 30.5%).
Some have interpreted the rise in the female LFPR and worker-to-population ratio (WPR) – a major contributor to the overall rise in employment and availability of labour in 2022-23 – as a sign of significant funnelling of economic progress to household livelihoods, particularly for women.
The rise in LFPR and employment (WPR, 27%) has been the same for females (+3% YoY). However, for males, the LFPR declined (-1.1% at 56.2%) more than WPR (-0.4%, to 54.4%). This implies that notwithstanding a greater contribution by women, the decline in the unemployment rate (UR) for males has been larger than for females. Thus, the rise in overall reported employment and labour force has been driven by women, particularly in rural areas.
Further details show that the surge in employment (WPR) has been driven by self-employed persons (57.3%, +1.5pp YoY) predominantly in rural areas and again contributed by women in the agriculture sector, especially young cohorts.
So, what does the PLFS data tell us?
Occupation status data shows a rise in female workers in agriculture sectors in FY23, both in the rural (+0.3pp YoY to 76.2%) and urban areas (+0.6pp to 11.7%). In contrast, their proportion in urban industry, construction and services has declined. In rural areas, the proportion of women in industry and services has risen even as the agri sector remains the most dominant.
Additionally, there has been a rise in the proportion of rural females of self-employed status (+3.2pp at 71%), indicating increasing dependence of rising LFPR and WPR on the agri sector. The worsening quality of the work profile reflects a decline in the proportion of regular wage work and casual wage work.
Thus, the rise in the contribution of rural females in the workforce and employment exhibits a strained situation where the decline in rural unemployment rate due to discouraged males in the mature group (30+ years) is balanced by a sharper rise in WPR and LFPR for young cohorts, especially females.
Whether the rising contribution of females in the labour force signifies improved job opportunities or reflects the underlying stress can be gauged from the trends in incomes. A gainful situation would imply an abundance of employment opportunities in productive sectors, translating into rising incomes. Conversely, a distress situation would emanate from a decline in average real incomes forcing women to seek work, even in less productive sectors and at lower wages.
In this respect, there are two takeaways from the PLFS data.
First, wages for the self-employed segment, male and female, are majorly driven by the rural areas (80% weight). As rural self-employment accounts for the disguised unemployment clustered under (a) helper in the household enterprise, (b) own account worker, and (c) employer, a significant portion of wage data represent imputed values based on activities they do; they do not represent actual cash wages.
Second, with respect to self-employed women, the weight of wages from rural (lower paying vs urban) has seen a remarkable rise from 72% in September 2018 to 84% in June 2023; the contribution of higher paying urban wages has declined. As a result, the 4-year CAGR for self-employed females was a meagre 3.5% (INR 5636/month).
Since the pre-pandemic levels, wages for self-employed females have remained stagnant (growing 0.6% pa) and the relative female self-employment wage is 64% lower than males. As a corollary, real female wages (net of inflation) have fallen by 5.4% pa since pre-Covid.
Besides this, the regular salary/wage growth for rural females (7.8% 4-year CAGR, 1.8% in real terms) was higher than for males (5.7% CAGR) reflecting the narrowing female-male gap in regular wages. However, the proportion of regular wage earners among females has declined in rural areas (8%, -0.1pp) and risen in urban areas (50.8%, +0.5pp).
Monthly income for female casual workers has grown by 10% on four-year CAGR, with a higher pace in rural at 10.2%. But this has been largely a pre-covid phenomenon. The average income growth since 2QFY22 has been just 1.4%. In 2022-23, the proportion of females in casual work has declined to 21% (-3.1pp YoY). Hence, the real income from casual work has also contracted over the past seven quarters.
Declines in real income per worker amid the rise in dependency have led to a forced increase in women's participation in the workforce even though at lower earnings. Stretched per capita incomes can have structural implications through the impact on investment in education and health, thereby impairing labour productivity and future earnings capability.
All put together, with changes in the work status of females, predominated by the rise in agri sectors and incomes mainly from self-employment, the rising contribution of females in the labour market epitomises a stressed livelihood rather than a bountiful situation. At a broader level, this trend mirrors an important dimension of the rising ruralisation phenomenon of the declining proportion of employment in the urban industrial and services sectors translating into rising dependence on rural sectors.
Exhibit 1: Female earnings from self-employment have stagnated (0.6% CAGR over pre-covid)
(Dhananjay Sinha is co-head of Equities and head of research of Strategy and Economics at Systematix Group.)
Deep dive
At Ideas for India, Julia Cagé, Guilhem Cassan and Francesca R Jensenius look at how political factors influence the newspaper market in India. Using the announcement of a delimitation exercise in the mid-2000s as an exogenous stimulus, they find an increase in newspaper circulation in districts whose electoral importance increased (in terms of constituencies gained) after the announcement. Is the media industry shaped by political determinants? Is the supply of media politically motivated?
Prime number: 76% of food companies’ revenue from less healthy products
Leading packaged food companies in India derive only 24% of their sales from healthier products, according to a report released by Access to Nutrition Initiative (ATNI). An analysis by the global nonprofit of 1,901 products from the top 20 Indian food companies revealed that 76% of sales of 19 are of “less healthy” products. Furthermore, India’s fast-moving consumer goods (FMCS) companies earn three-quarters of their packaged foods revenue from products that rank poorly on health.
Opeds you don’t want to miss
Sushant Singh writes that unlike Ukraine, India does not want its territory back from the Chinese and return to the 2020 status-quo in Ladakh. “A tactic of keeping the Indian citizenry either distracted or in the dark is easy with the help of compromised institutions and a co-opted media but it is not going to help deal with a powerful adversary. The journey to fix this must begin with honesty. Unless democratically elected leaders are held accountable by a citizenry that is kept fully informed, we should be ready to be shocked, but not surprised, by China, once again.”
Amidst relief that the trapped workers will soon be rescued, India shouldn’t forget the key warning from the collapsed tunnel – that the environmental impact assessment system is broken, writes M. Rajshekhar.
India risks alienating the Sikh diaspora if it identifies them all as ‘Khalistanis’, and does not acknowledge the political and social diversity of the community, says Shinder S Thandi in The India Forum.
India will remain a land of contrasts, says Nalini Singh ― it’s going to be the third biggest economy in 2028, and will still be delivering free rations to the poor.
Conflating reservations with quality does not produce an argument. Reservation produces inclusion, and that’s what counts, says MS Sriram.
“The development of the rich world systematically undercuts the conditions for survival of billions of people in the climate danger zone. This violent and indirect entanglement is new in its quality and scale,” writes Adam Tooze.
Listen up
The Chief Justice of India praised a predecessor’s podcast in open court. On the BIC talks series, listen to former chief justice of India MN Venkatachaliah on federalism, society, politics and the future of India – a capsule of timeless wisdom!
Watch out
India has reacted differently to the charges levelled by Canada and the US. Ravish Kumar asks why India isn’t doing the obvious ― asking the US why it is shielding a separatist who has been making threats, and seeking his extradition.
Over and out
Napoleon Bonaparte was keen on joining the forces of Tipu Sultan and helping him drive the British out of India. And in 1801, the Tsar sent a secret proposition to Napoleon to carry out a joint invasion of India and drive out the English and the East India Company. The Indian Express has more on it.
Half a century ago, the Royal Bengal Tiger was named India’s national animal. A thread by Paperclip revisits the remarkable tale of Khairi, the orphaned tiger cub who adopted a human family.
That’s it for the week. We’ll be back with you on Monday, on a device near you. If The India Cable was forwarded to you by a friend (perhaps a common friend!) book your own copy by SUBSCRIBING HERE.