Russian Foreign Minister Says West Trying to Create Rift Between India and China; India May Increase Chenab Output Beyond Indus Water Treaty; Questions Being Raised About Modi’s Foreign Policy: BBC
In a first, S Jaishankar Speaks with Taliban Counterpart, Proprietor of Gujarat Samachar, Critical of Modi Government Arrested, Does India Want to be Vish Guru or Vishwaguru?
A newsletter from The Wire | Founded by Tanweer Alam, Sidharth Bhatia, Pratik Kanjilal, Seema Chishti, Sushant Singh, MK Venu, and Siddharth Varadarajan | Contributing writer: Kalrav Joshi, with additional inputs by Anirudh SK
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Over to Sidharth Bhatia for today’s Cable
Snapshot of the day
May 16, 2025
Sidharth Bhatia
India is considering doubling the length of the Ranbir canal on the Chenab river and the ceasefire with Pakistan has not stopped discussions within the Union government, Reuters reports, citing people in the know. India is allowed to use a limited amount of the Chenab’s water under the Indus Waters Treaty – which it put in abeyance after the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack – and the expansion of this canal would allow it to divert 150 cubic metres of water per second as opposed to 40 currently. Experts say this expansion could take years to materialise.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov alleged that the West is pitching India and China against each other and attempting to create a rift between India and China to foster antagonism between the neighbouring countries. Speaking at a meeting of the ‘Culture without Borders: the Role and Development of Cultural Diplomacy’ diplomatic club in Moscow, Sergei Lavrov asserted that Western strategies in the Asia-Pacific region are designed to fuel tensions between the two Asian nations. “Take note of the current developments in the Asia-Pacific region, which the West has started calling the Indo-Pacific region to give its policy a clear anti-China orientation — expecting thereby to additionally clash with our great friends and neighbours India and China,” Sergei Lavrov said. He further criticised the West’s attempts to “lure some ASEAN members into openly confrontational rather than unifying formats," and called for a collective security arrangement in Eurasia.
“Chinese weapons gave Pakistan a new edge against India” with “America and its allies are now scrambling for details”, says The Economist in a hard-hitting piece.
The Central government is now scrambling to send multi-party delegations abroad in a diplomatic outreach. As reported by The Hindu, these delegations – comprising MPs, former diplomats, and policy experts – will fan out across the world from May 23 to engage with foreign governments and civil society groups. The timing is telling. This reaction comes amid US President Donald Trump’s continued assertions that it was Washington that brokered the ceasefire between India and Pakistan following the four-day military standoff. [See Listen up]
According to a BBC report, serious questions are now being raised about the Modi government’s foreign policy following the recent conflict with Pakistan. The ceasefire announcement came not from New Delhi, but from the United States – signaling a diplomatic snub. Even more glaring was President Trump’s refusal to mention terrorism and his framing of India and Pakistan as equals. Despite India’s consistent stand against third-party mediation, the US claimed credit for brokering peace, with Pakistan acknowledging it. Meanwhile, India avoided naming America and insisted the ceasefire was “bilateral.” This sequence of events has led many experts to argue that India’s long-standing effort to ‘de-hyphenate’ itself from Pakistan has failed, the report says, underscoring that India’s diplomatic stance appeared reactive, not strategic – raising sharp concerns over the effectiveness of the Modi government’s foreign policy during the crisis [See Pen vs Sword]
The latest India-Pakistan ceasefire is not peace or reset; it is a pause on a more perilous plateau. Future crises will erupt faster, escalate harder, and risk nuclear disaster sooner, writes Sushant Singh on why South Asia’s new baseline is so dangerous. He writes,
“This cease-fire between India and Pakistan represents not a resolution but a perilous and temporary pause in their long-standing hostilities. Unlike the 1999 Kargil episode, which reset the escalation ladder and ushered in years of relative stability, the latest truce has codified a more dangerous baseline. Both countries now claim victory and remain locked in incompatible narratives: India says its BrahMos missile strikes forced Pakistan to seek peace, while Pakistan credits its nuclear signaling and diplomatic maneuvering.
This disconnect, coupled with compressed decision timelines and technological advances such as supersonic missiles and drone swarms, has created a scenario in which future conflicts between India and Pakistan will likely start at higher levels of escalation. Meanwhile, China has emerged as the primary beneficiary of the conflict, testing its military hardware (and even securing trade deals) while India remains distracted.
With nationalist fervor inflamed in both countries and New Delhi’s partners conspicuously silent, the cease-fire has done little to address the underlying grievances between India and Pakistan or to establish new guardrails. Instead, it has set the stage for future crises to erupt with greater speed and intensity. South Asia now stands precariously balanced between an unstable peace and catastrophic war”.
To live along the Line of Control (LoC) is to exist perpetually on the razor’s edge between fragile peace and open conflict. Soutik Biswas writes on why ceasefires on the de facto border are only as durable as the next provocation.
In the first ministerial level-contact between India and the Taliban government, external affairs minister S. Jaishankar spoke with acting Afghan foreign minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi and appreciated Kabul’s dismissal of the Pakistani claim that India had launched missile strikes on Afghan territory. This is the first ministerial-level phone call since the Taliban came to power through military conquest as the US withdrew its forces in August 2021. In a post on X, Jaishankar said he had a “good conversation” with Muttaqi on Thursday evening, adding that he “deeply appreciate[d] his condemnation of the Pahalgam terrorist attack”. Incidentally, on the same day that Afghanistan firmly rejected Pakistan’s claim about an Indian missile attack, Muttaqi held a trilateral meeting with Pakistan’s special envoy for Afghanistan, Mohammad Sadiq Khan, and China’s special representative, Yue Xiaoyong. While India, aligning with the international community, does not formally recognise the Taliban government, its engagement with it has steadily grown, especially as Kabul’s relations with Islamabad have deteriorated.
The danger with the “new normal” of ‘Operation Sindoor’ is that it will need a newer normal the next time, and the next crisis will start at a higher level of escalation, says military historian Srinath Raghavan in an interview with Nirupama Subramanian. Watch below:
For more than two years, there have been rumours that a Gujarati business house was eyeing the state’s premier newspaper ‘Gujarat Samachar’. Last night, Bahubali Shah, 73 – one of the two brothers who own the paper – was arrested by ED in a SEBI case dating back to 2016 after a raid in Ahmedabad. As per the media reports, income tax searches had been earlier reported on at least 24 premises linked to Gujarat Samachar and the family that owns it in Ahmedabad. The ED and income tax authorities are yet to issue any official statement. Bahubali Shah’s brother and Gujarat Samachar editor-in-chief Shreyans Shantilal Shah told the Deccan Herald that his brother has been arrested “in an old case. We don’t have much details as yet about the charges…we are being targeted.” Meanwhile, the opposition Congress has alleged that Shah was held by ED because of the newspaper’s critical writing against Modi and his government.
According to Gujarat Congress President and Rajya Sabha MP Shaktisinh Gohil, Gujarat Samachar’s reporting about the recent India-Pakistan conflict had led to Shah being targeted.
“Punishment to stand up for Truth has been the motto of the BJP government. Leading Gujarati newspaper Gujarat Samachar has always stood up against power, who so ever it be. However, showing mirror to BJP Government and PM Modi in the recent India – Pakistan fallout has ensured that Modi let out his favourite tool kit, his hounds. Income Tax( IT) and Enforcement Directorate (ED) has pounced upon Gujarat Samachar and its television channel GSTv besides other business entities. Gujarat Samachar owner Bahubalibhai Shah has been arrested,” said Gohil in a post on X.
Madhya Pradesh’s deputy chief minister Jagdish Devda has elicited controversy by saying that all of India, including the army, are bowing down at Prime Minister Modi’s feet for his leadership during Operation Sindoor. Other BJP leaders have also lauded Modi albeit in a less unrestrained fashion, Omar Rashid notes.
A new fiscal proposal championed by the United States Republican leadership is drawing significant attention — and concern — for a clause that could have far-reaching financial implications for millions of migrant workers, particularly Indians living in the US. The proposal, officially titled, ‘The One Big Beautiful Bill,’ introduces a 5% tax on all remittances sent outside the US by individuals who are not American citizens. This remittance tax, quietly buried in a voluminous 389-page legislative package, could deal a severe blow to overseas Indians who regularly send money to their families in India or invest back home. According to India’s Ministry of External Affairs, there are nearly 4.5 million overseas Indians in the US, including about 3.2 million Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs).
The unemployment rate last month among persons 15 and older was 5.1%, with the average figure for males across urban and rural areas being 5.2% and for women being 5%, as per the Periodic Labour Force Survey released yesterday. The overall labour force participation rate was 55.6% and the worker-population ratio 52.8%. The Union government used to release the PLFS for urban areas every quarter and rural areas annually, but from now on it will release figures for both areas every month. Reuters notes that the unemployment rate for April as calculated by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy is 7.73%.
Reports of a group of Rohingya refugees being forced off an Indian navy vessel and made to swim in the Andaman Sea to an island in Myanmar are “nothing short of outrageous”, UN special rapporteur on the human rights situation in Myanmar Tom Andrews has said in a statement. He added that he is “seeking further information and testimony regarding these developments” and implored “the Indian government to provide a full accounting of what happened”.
Rules released earlier this week that follow the government’s decision to allow overseas lawyers to open offices in India and advice on select matters stipulate that such lawyers who do not open offices and wish to continue flying into India must inform the Bar Council before they arrive and disclose certain client details. Some lawyers said this move is contrary to the government’s aim of liberalising the industry, while the Bar Council said the “strict” rules are aimed at protecting domestic practitioners, report Aditya Kalra and Arpan Chaturvedi.
The High Court of Justice in London yesterday rejected Nirav Modi’s plea for bail as he awaits extradition to India. Although his lawyer argued that Modi – accused in the Rs 13,000 crore Punjab National Bank fraud case and in British custody since 2019 – would not flee the UK out of fear of New Delhi, citing its alleged attempts to target pro-Khalistan elements in the US and Canada, a judge ruled that “there are substantial grounds for believing that if released by me on bail … [Modi] would fail to surrender”, Sam Tobin reports.
As of two days ago, the Union and Chhattisgarh governments’ anti-Maoist Operation Kagar killed 31 armed insurgents, they said. It is unclear whether Madvi Hidma, commander of the CPI Maoist’s dreaded Battalion #1, was slain. Meanwhile, the proscribed outfit’s central committee urged New Delhi to hold talks with it, saying that while the government has demanded that the Maoists lay down their arms first, the party can only take such a decision when its central and core committees meet, which in turn would require a ceasefire, reports N Rahul.
Initiation of Turkish ambassador deferred following Erdogan’s support for Pakistan
Amid public sentiment against Turkey for its support to Islamabad during last week’s India-Pakistan conflict, not only was Turkish airport services firm Celebi’s security license in India revoked and did some universities suspended MoUs with their Turkish counterparts, the ceremony in which Turkey’s ambassador-designate to India was to present his credentials to President Droupadi Murmu was deferred just three hours before it was to take place. The Ministry of External Affairs attributed the deferment to a ‘scheduling’ problem, but these events are typically planned months in advance. Government officials did not cite Turkey as a reason for postponing the ceremony – and sources say India has not lodged a formal protest with Ankara – but given its timing it has sent a pointed message.
Meanwhile, Mohammed Zubair points out that India’s ambassador to Turkey deleted an X post he made yesterday afternoon about a meeting of the Turkey-India parliamentary friendship group. And AltNews reports that a fake message claiming to be from Turkey’s tourism ministry asking Indians not to stop travelling to the country has been circulated widely on social media, including by prominent journalists and politicians.
Now Celebi has challenged India’s decision to revoke its security clearance and Air India has lobbied the government to pause IndiGo’s partnership with Turkish Airlines on grounds of business impact as well as security concerns, per Reuters.
How Pakistan has perfected its ‘high-stakes nuclear poker’ game
Islamabad has used its nuclear capabilities not just to have its way on the battlefield, but also in its dealings with global financial institutions: for instance, through its assertions that a bankrupt nuclear-armed Pakistan is much more dangerous than a financially well-managed one, as well as by voicing concerns that Islamist extremists could get a hold of its nukes in the event of a financial collapse. Such deterrence, notes Rahul Bedi, has “enabled Pakistan to defy norms and push the envelope with India and the world with little consequences”. In the military domain, such as during Operation Sindoor, Bedi writes that even as India enjoyed military superiority, “Pakistan controlled the fear in the room” by virtue of having the world’s only nuclear stockpile of its kind managed by a revisionist rather than status quo military.
ICC, Jay Shah gets called out for hypocrisy over Khwaja peace ban
The International Cricket Council (ICC) is under fire for what critics are calling a “staggering hypocrisy” – earlier banning Australia’s Usman Khawaja from displaying a peace symbol on his bat, while its chairman Jay Shah publicly supported Indian armed forces during the recent Pakistan-India conflict. Critics argue the body has been inconsistent after Australian batter Usman Khawaja was blocked from displaying a dove symbol late in 2023 and the phrase “All lives are equal” in support of peace in the Middle East. The ICC deemed the gesture too political.
Meanwhile, Jay Shah, the ICC Chairperson and secretary of the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI), publicly expressed support for the Indian military – prompting many to question how the ICC enforces its own policies, and whether powerful national interests are influencing decisions. Under Shah’s ICC, it appears, war is acceptable, peace is provocative.
The Long Cable
Do we want to become Vishwa Guru or Vish Guru?
Badri Raina
Alas, what cyanide suffuses the neo-bigot brain.
The merest mention of the Muslim, or of those who regard them as equal citizens of the republic, entitled to all the guarantees enshrined in the secular Constitution of India, brings forth the bite.
Thus even a minister who has taken his legitimating oath on that same constitution thinks nothing of spitting venom, be it even at a Colonel rank lady officer who happens to be a Muslim.
The nation waits to hear from the honourable prime minister as to what he thinks of the said minister's clever gambit of attributing the brilliant move of fielding "their own sister" to do dirt on the terrorists who widowed our Hindu sisters in Pahalgam.
Surely, it might be hoped that the numero uno ought not to waste a minute in calling out this allegedly authorising malignant reference to his alleged tactical brilliance.
Blessed be the High Court of Madhya Pradesh which, noticing that the law-enforcement apparatus had not moved in the matter as imperatives both of the rule of law and national unity would have required of them, took suo motu cognizance of the so-heinous minister-speak, and ordered an FIR to be lodged against the offender within hours of the decree.
Do we not every hour of every day hear of the malicious echo system of them rotten secular liberals who willy nilly support the so-anti-Bharat elements still allegedly flourishing within the realm?
So if we may ask: what of the echo system that invariably supports, reinforces, propagates the venomous things said again and again by "nationalist" warriors, who brazenly include members of legislatures, of parliament, and ministers alike, in utter contempt of the Constitution and the rule of law?
Three cheers and more for Uma Bharti ji who has unequivocally asked for the culprit minister's ouster from the Madhya Pradesh cabinet--an upright voice no longer heeded in the upper echelons of the ruling BJP.
As stated above, not just Muslims but any and all who speak for secular constitutional values, often risking life and limb, are fair game for this kind of bigot.
Imagine that even the wife of the slain naval officer, Himanshi Narwal, began to be trolled within hours of being widowed a week after her wedding for saying that she did not wish anyone to persecute Muslims and Kashmiris for the terrorists attack at Pahalgam.
Nor was the Kashmiri Pandit foreign secretary, V.K. Misri spared for merely announcing the govt decision to agree to the cessation of firing;
We were to understand that, among other bad influences upon them of a liberal kind, both Himanshi and Misri's daughter had been corrupted by their sojourn at – you know where – the Jawaharlal Nehru university.
Remarkably, both India's finance minister and minister of external affairs, who both went to the same institution, seemed to have miraculously escaped the vile influence of the very same naughty institution.
This culture of neo-bigotry , it must be admitted, is not a tangential phenomenon, but one that draws breath from the predilections that afflict very high places, both local and central.
It is heartening that the vicious maligning of Colonel Sofia Qureshi has drawn wide-spread pushback, even from sections of the sold-out media.
So may this be a tipping point?
The question is dying to be asked: do we want to be Vishwa Guru or Vish Guru?
Certainly Amrit and Venom are antipodal entities, and must yield nation-states and societies worthy of emulation or deserving of annihilation.
Bharat cannot be allowed to become a doppelganger of that which she abhors in theory.
(Badri Raina taught at Delhi University.)
Reportedly
Justice Bela Trivedi became one of the very few Supreme Court judges in the last few decades who was not given a send off by the Supreme Court Bar Association. Senior advocate Raju Ramachandran said on Facebook, that in his experience of being a member for nearly five decades, the SCBA had never been “petty”. “Not only the strictest but also the rudest have been giving farewells”, he wrote. By not doing it in the case of Justice Trivedi, “the bar has shown spine and has shown discernment”, he wrote. Justice Gavai did not quite see it the same way and was critical of the SCBA’s association. At a ceremonial bench held in her honour, he said she had always been “fair” and was known for her “hard work and integrity”. He was appreciative of the fact that the president of the SCBA Kapil Sibal and vice-president Rachna Srivastava were both present at the ceremonial bench event.
Pen vs sword
Deep dive
A new report by Center for the Study of Organized Hate (CSOH) offers a comprehensive analysis of the misinformation and disinformation trends that emerged following the outbreak of active hostilities between India and Pakistan on May 7. False reports of military victories, doctored videos purporting to show successful airstrikes, fabricated images of destroyed infrastructure, recycled footage from the Russia-Ukraine war and bombings in Gaza, use of Generative AI and video game clips, rumors about the deaths or arrests of high-profile military and political figures, rumours of a coup, nuclear radiation leak proliferated across social media platforms, including X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube. It says that, “X emerged as the primary hub for both misinformation and disinformation. Of the 437 X posts we examined, 179 originated from verified accounts and only 73 were flagged with Community Notes.”
Prime number: Rs 30,44,194
PM Modi’s one-day “private” visit to an RSS function in Nagpur on March 30, 2025, cost the public Rs 30.44 lakh, RTI records reveal. Expenses included Rs 16.78 lakh on barricades, Rs 9.07 lakh on convoy vehicles, and Rs 4.58 lakh on meals. Though labelled private, the event saw full use of public funds and state machinery, raising serious concerns over the misuse of taxpayer money for partisan purposes.Opeds you don’t want to miss
Madhya Pradesh minister Vijay Shah’s remarks against Colonel Sofiya Qureshi are not only inappropriate but qualify as hate speech; the right response would be to axe him from the cabinet, the Deccan Herald writes in its editorial.
Suresh Kumar raises the question: why do hooch tragedies keep happening in Punjab? In the last 15 years, there have been many deaths due to spurious liquor in several regions and the victims are often the same-”the impoverished, the landless, the addicted - individuals the state is sworn to protect but continuously neglects.” For them, licensed liquor remains very expensive–a 750 ml bottle costs between Rs 300-400, which is “prohibitively expensive.” This drives them to illicit hooch. In the latest tragedy, the cheap, illicit liquor was mixed with methanol which killed many people.
Modi’s government has over its tenure nurtured an extreme-Right constituency, some of which is now unhappy with the ceasefire and Donald Trump’s claims of US mediation. His speech to the nation earlier this week betrays his attempt to “ride the tiger” and “keep the flock together”, observes Bharat Bhushan.
Being a self-proclaimed master of the ‘art of the deal’, Trump may be tempted to broker a final solution to Kashmir. But Lisa Curtis makes the case for why he “should resist the urge” and Washington “should not try to fix an unfixable issue” lest it “encourages Islamabad’s unrealistic expectation that a final settlement will give Pakistan a greater share of Kashmir”. Instead, she writes, “Washington should mostly stick to its role as a crisis manager, which it has a unique responsibility to fulfill”.
Having “produced no winner” and New Delhi’s “intended deterrent effect on terrorist groups” and on Pakistan remaining unclear, the Indo-Pakistani conflict of last week was fought for ‘nothing’, says Le Monde.
Listen up
What are the learnings – diplomatic and military – for India from the recent confrontation with Pakistan? Sushant Singh weighs in with sharp insights in a conversation with G Sampath on The Hindu’s InFocus podcast. Listen here.
Watch out
What exactly was US President Donald Trump’s role in the Indo-Pakistani ceasefire and where do things go from here? Sravasti Dasgupta is joined by foreign affairs reporters Devirupa Mitra and Kallol Bhattacherjee to discuss.
Over and out
Adivasi women from ten villages in Odisha’s Koraput with the help of an NGO have surveyed and mapped what natural resources exist in their area and which ones have dwindled. They have created ‘dream maps’ of these areas showing them in their ideal state. Their plan is to submit these maps to officials as a first step to asking for funds to rejuvenate their common areas. Their efforts come against the backdrop of the fact that Adivasi women are most heavily impacted by climate change. Sibi Arasu reports.
That’s it for today. We’ll be back with you on Monday, on a device near you. If The India Cable was forwarded to you by a friend (perhaps a common friend!) book your own copy by SUBSCRIBING HERE.